XRP Price Holds Bullish Pattern; But Key Risks Linger

XRP price has climbed close to 10% in the past week, riding the broader crypto rally as the total market cap pushes above $4.13 trillion.

But the jump has also brought sellers into the picture, and on-chain data suggests short-term holders may already be cashing out.

Short-Term Holders Start to Exit

HODL Waves, a metric that groups coins by how long they’ve been held, shows two key cohorts shrinking fast.

On July 20, wallets holding XRP for 3–6 months controlled about 12.07% of the supply. By August 10, that number had dropped to 8.93%. The 1–3 month XRP wallets group tells the same story, falling from 6.78% on August 1 to 5.83% at the time of writing.

The 1-3 month cohort’s monthly accumulation peaked when the XRP price was around $2.77. As they keep dumping their shares, the profit-hungry narrative gets a clear validation.

HODL Waves matter because they reveal investor behavior over time. A falling share for recent holders usually means they are selling, often to lock in profits after a price jump. This can signal a short-term shift in sentiment before the broader market trend changes.

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Exchange Reserves Point to More Selling Pressure

When we connect the HODL Wave drop to exchange reserve data, the picture becomes clearer. Over the past week, XRP reserves on exchanges have been climbing. Historically, rising reserves paired with falling short-term HODL groups have preceded price pullbacks.

We saw this pattern as recently as July 22, when reserves spiked and the XRP price dropped from around $3.55 to $3.17 in one session. The logic is simple: coins moving onto exchanges are easier to sell. When that happens while certain holder groups are shrinking, it often means profit-taking is in motion.

XRP Price Structure Still Bullish; For Now

On the 4-hour chart, the XRP price is still respecting an ascending triangle pattern. The bullish setup has clear levels to watch. Resistance sits at $3.34; a break above could open the door to $3.57 and the all-time high near $3.66.

On the downside, support holds at $3.15. A drop below that would bring $3.07 into play and turn the short-term structure bearish.

For traders, the current thesis, that we might see short-term consolidation before another leg up, gets invalidated if the price closes above $3.34. Until then, the mix of profit-taking signals and climbing exchange reserves suggests caution.

In short, XRP’s chart still favors the bulls, but the behavior of short-term holders and rising reserves hints that momentum may stall before any run to new highs. Traders should watch $3.15 on the downside and $3.34 on the upside for the next big move.