Will A 17 trillion PEPE Outflow Trigger a Price Breakout?

Pepe (PEPE) price is showing signs of renewed strength, rising nearly 57% in the past month.

While the broader market cooled off in the last 24 hours, PEPE remains one of the few tokens trading close to a key technical breakout level. Despite the recent rally, the meme token is still trading over 51% below its all-time high, suggesting potential upside if market momentum holds.

Heavy Exchange Outflows Suggest Holder Confidence Is High

Since July 16, almost 17.9 trillion PEPE tokens have left exchanges, reflecting a consistent week-long pattern of outflows. This kind of movement usually indicates that holders are shifting their tokens to private wallets; often a bullish sign, as it reduces near-term sell pressure.

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What’s interesting is that the token outflows have continued despite the PEPE price surging over 12% in the same period. That might mean that selling is not the priority as of now.

Outflows on exchanges are a useful metric because they measure the net movement of tokens from trading platforms. When more tokens are leaving than entering, it generally implies that fewer traders are preparing to sell.

MVRV Data Hints at Low Sell Risk Despite Recent Gains

PEPE’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has entered the positive territory, but it remains modest at +12.24%. Historically, short-term holders begin selling when this metric crosses 20–30%, meaning the current level still leaves room for further gains.

This observation is in sync with the aggressive exchange outflows, despite the positive price action. Both the metrics in combination suggest that better gains might be expected from PEPE.

The MVRV ratio compares the price at which tokens were last moved to their current value. A low but positive MVRV suggests holders are sitting on light profits, but not enough to trigger mass sell-offs. Combined with sustained outflows, this adds weight to the idea that Pepe’s recent price strength may have legs.

PEPE Price Sits Near Wedge Breakout, But…

PEPE is currently trading along the upper boundary of a wedge pattern. It is a setup often associated with bullish breakouts. The final confirmation, however, hinges on whether PEPE can close above the $0.00001497 level. This price level aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci extension.

While the breakout might be a trading sign for many, a clear move past $0.00001497, a key resistance level, could work as an additional layer of validation. If this trend-based Fibonacci resistance level is breached, the PEPE price could have the legs to move towards $0.000017 or higher.

But if PEPE fails to maintain momentum and drops below 0.00001200, that would likely signal the start of a broader retracement and invalidate the current bullish setup.