Whale Activity Signals a Critical Price Test Ahead

XRP has struggled to maintain its momentum in recent weeks, with the token slipping nearly 10% over the past month. At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $2.96, as the broader market shows mixed signals.

While assets such as Ethereum continue to post upward moves, establishing a new high, XRP has instead faced consistent correction, leading market participants to closely monitor whether the trend could extend further or stabilize in the near term.

A CryptoQuant analyst has noted that XRP’s current price action comes after an early-2025 rally that saw the token reach the $3.5 to $4 range. That surge was accompanied by a spike in inflows to exchanges, particularly from large holders, signaling significant profit-taking.

The analyst argues that this inflow activity may be exerting renewed pressure on the token’s price, leaving investors to weigh both the risks and potential opportunities ahead.

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XRP Exchange Inflow Data Points to Profit-Taking

The analyst, known as PelinayPA, highlighted the significance of XRP’s exchange inflow transactions in a recent analysis. The analyst explained that historically, periods of heavy inflows from major holders have often preceded cycle tops in XRP’s price.

Notable examples included its 2018 peak above $3, the 2021 high near $1.90, and the 2023 rally toward $0.90. According to the latest data, a similar trend has emerged. PelinayPA noted:

At the start of 2025, XRP rallied to $3.5–$4 with massive inflow waves, especially in high-value bands (100K–1M+ XRP). This suggests significant whale selling pressure. Currently, inflows remain exceptionally high, pointing to short-term selling pressure.

The report outlined multiple scenarios depending on whether XRP can hold support near the $3.00 level. In the short term, continued inflows could drive prices toward the $2.8 zone.

However, if the $3 threshold holds, the analyst believes it could serve as a base for a new upward attempt, with resistance levels between $4.2 and $4.5 being key to unlocking further gains.

Over the long run, the analyst stressed that XRP remains in a stronger structural uptrend compared to earlier market cycles, leaving open the possibility of new highs above $5 later in 2025.

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Technical Levels Signal Make-or-Break Moment

Complementing the on-chain outlook, traders are also focused on technical indicators. An analyst on X, posting under the name “XRP Update,” emphasized the importance of the $2.95 level, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.

In their analysis, holding above this level could create a pathway toward $3.33 and $3.57, while a breakout beyond $4.6–$5.2 would bring XRP into new price discovery territory.

$XRP AT A MAKE OR BREAK LEVEL ⚡️

– Price sits on $2.95 (Fib 0.618) a key support zone.💪🏼

– Hold above → path to $3.33 → $3.57, then eyes on $4.6–$5.2 💥🚀

– Lose it → risk dips to $2.65 📉

The next move will define the trend‼️ pic.twitter.com/iYa94DyiRA

— XRP Update (@XrpUdate) August 25, 2025

On the other hand, failure to maintain support could open the door to further downside, with $2.65 flagged as the next key level. This aligns with the caution expressed in on-chain data, suggesting that XRP is currently at a pivotal stage where the next move may determine its trajectory for the rest of the year.

Featured iameg created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView