This Is Why Solana Price Is Likely To Drop Way Below $200

Solana continues to struggle, shedding 15% over the past week with no signs of slowing its decline this weekend. 

On-chain metrics indicate that futures market participants are also reducing their activity while short-term holders are increasingly offloading their positions. These signals suggest that Solana could face further losses, potentially testing the $200 mark in the coming sessions.

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Solana Faces Mounting Pressure

SOL’s recent price decline coincides with a drop in its futures market open interest, highlighting falling market participation. According to Coinglass data, this currently stands at $14 billion, down by 17% since September 19. 

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Open interest represents the total number of unsettled futures or options contracts and is commonly used to gauge trader engagement and capital flow into an asset.

When it falls alongside an asset’s price, it signals that traders are closing positions rather than initiating new ones. This reflects waning confidence in SOL and points to a selloff trend largely driven by exiting traders.

Furthermore, the lackluster performance of the broader market has further dampened the conviction of SOL’s short-term holders. 

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According to Glassnode, an assessment of the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for SOL’s short-term holders confirms this weak sentiment. At press time, the NUPL stands at 0.039, signaling that these holders’ conviction is oscillating between the Hope and Fear zones.

This means that, on average, short-term holders are barely in profit, with many teetering near break-even. 

Historically, when NUPL occupies this range, there is heightened sensitivity among short-term holders, who may capitulate at the first signs of weakness. This puts SOL at more risk of extending its fall. 

SOL Eyes $195 If Buyers Stay on the Sidelines

If current trends persist and buyer demand fails to recover, SOL could slip below the critical $200 support level and fall to $195.55.

Conversely, renewed interest from buyers could stabilize the altcoin and prevent further losses, offering a potential rebound. In this scenario, its price could climb to $219.29