Strategy’s Cycle Peak Aligned with IBIT Options Debut Last November

When BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) options went live on Nov. 19, trading activity exploded, reaching over $2 billion in volume on day one.

Around the same time, Strategy’s (MSTR) multiple to net asset value (mNAV), calculated by dividing its enterprise value by its bitcoin BTC$110,994.85 NAV, hit a cycle peak of 3.141 on Nov 20. This peak aligned with bitcoin’s price nearing $100,000 and MSTR’s stock reaching an all-time high of $540.

Since then, MSTR has fallen 40%, and its mNAV has compressed to 1.55. At the peak, Strategy held 331,200 BTC, which now represents an increase of roughly 305,000 BTC compared to earlier holdings.

MSTR has long offered investors a unique trading vehicle, blending equity exposure with bitcoin’s volatility. Traders could use it both as a leveraged play on bitcoin and as an instrument for options strategies. This differentiated it from IBIT, which only provided direct exposure to spot bitcoin, but now investors have the choice of both.

Despite IBIT’s strong debut and steady growth, MSTR has massively outperformed since the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. MSTR is up more than 515%, compared to IBIT’s 128% gain. On metrics like historical trading volume and volatility, MSTR continues to outpace IBIT.

Currently, bitcoin implied volatility sits below 40, a relatively subdued level. Implied volatility reflects the market’s expectations of future price swings, and when it is low, traders are less inclined to pursue leveraged or option-based strategies. For leverage products like MSTR to regain momentum, bitcoin volatility will likely need to climb higher.