Sticky Inflation, Softer Jobs — Macro Headwinds Stir BTC Tailwinds Sticky Inflation, Softer Jobs — Macro Headwinds Stir BTC Tailwinds

Sticky Inflation, Softer Jobs — Macro Headwinds Stir BTC Tailwinds

Bitcoin is about 4% higher than it was a week ago—good news for the digital asset but bad news for the economy.

The recent negative tone of the economic data points from last week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, making riskier assets such as stocks and bitcoin more attractive.

Let’s recap the data that backs up that thesis.

The most important one, the U.S. CPI figures, came out on Thursday. The headline rate was slightly higher than expected, a sign inflation might be stickier than anticipated.

Before that, we had Tuesday’s revisions to job data. The world’s largest economy created almost 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March, the largest downward revision in the country’s history.

The figures followed the much-watched monthly jobs report, which was released the previous Friday. The U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 263,000 — the highest since October 2021.

US Initial Jobless Claims (TradingEconomics)

Higher inflation and fewer jobs are not great for the U.S. economy, so it’s no surprise that the word “stagflation” is starting to creep back into macroeconomic commentary.

Against this backdrop, bitcoin—considered a risk asset by Wall Street—continued grinding higher, topping $116,000 on Friday and almost closing the CME futures gap at 117,300 from August.

Not a surprise, as traders are also bidding up the biggest risk assets: equities. Just take a look at the S&P 500 index, which closed at a record for the second day on the hope of a rate cut.

So how should traders think about BTC’s price chart?

To this chart enthusiast, price action remains constructive, with higher lows forming from the September bottom of $107,500. The 200-day moving average has climbed to $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — often used as support in bull markets — rose to a record $109,668.

Short Term Realized Price (Glassnode)

Short Term Realized Price (Glassnode)

Bitcoin-linked stocks: A mixed bag

However, bitcoin’s weekly positive price action didn’t help Strategy (MSTR), the largest of the bitcoin treasury companies, whose shares were about flat for the week. Its rivals performed better: MARA Holdings (MARA) 7% and XXI (CEP) 4%.

Strategy (MSTR) has underperformed bitcoin year-to-date and continues to hover below its 200-day moving average, currently $355. At Thursday’s close of $326, it’s testing a key long-term support level seen back in September 2024 and April 2025.

The company’s mNAV premium has compressed to below 1.5x when accounting for outstanding convertible debt and preferred stock, or roughly 1.3x based solely on equity value.

MSTR (TradingView)

MSTR (TradingView)

Preferred stock issuance remains muted, with only $17 million tapped across STRK and STRF this week, meaning that the bulk of at-the-money issuance is still flowing through common shares. According to the company, options are now listed and trading for all four perpetual preferred stocks, a development that could provide additional yield on the dividend.

Bullish catalysts for crypto stocks?

The CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders expect a 25 basis-point U.S. interest-rate cut in September and have priced in a total of three rate cuts by year-end.

That’s a sign risk sentiment could tilt back toward growth and crypto-linked equities, underlined by the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly breaking below 4% this week.

US 10-year (TradingView)

US 10-year (TradingView)

Still, the dollar index (DXY) continues to hold multiyear support, a potential inflection point worth watching.

A chart of the DXY index

(TradingView)



Source link

James Van Straten

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/14/sticky-inflation-softer-jobs-macro-headwinds-stir-bitcoin-tailwinds

2025-09-14 08:00:00

bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 121,272.00 0.60%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 4,323.00 2.42%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.00%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 1,268.00 3.62%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 2.81 0.58%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 218.53 3.25%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 0.999709 0.00%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.247668 0.25%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 4,321.69 2.44%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.335715 0.93%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.814012 0.40%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 5,254.09 2.38%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 121,443.00 0.48%
wrapped-beacon-eth
Wrapped Beacon ETH (WBETH) $ 4,662.08 2.52%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 22.34 1.04%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 0.998972 0.07%
figure-heloc
Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC) $ 1.03 1.26%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 3.44 0.64%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.380935 0.18%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 28.32 0.40%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 43.61 4.06%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 586.50 1.41%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 4,659.48 2.43%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 4,322.10 2.46%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 127.58 8.26%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.213599 0.10%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.58 0.58%
binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chain
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 0.999614 0.18%
coinbase-wrapped-btc
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 121,333.00 0.51%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 0.999453 0.04%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 2.29 16.21%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000012 1.23%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 2.70 1.85%
usdt0
USDT0 (USDT0) $ 0.999942 0.01%
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.190549 1.72%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 43.40 1.03%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.08 0.07%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 334.79 0.69%
ethena-staked-usde
Ethena Staked USDe (SUSDE) $ 1.20 0.04%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 8.16 3.42%
world-liberty-financial
World Liberty Financial (WLFI) $ 0.175998 1.85%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00 0.09%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 205.10 4.44%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 274.32 2.10%
zcash
Zcash (ZEC) $ 235.57 29.71%
ethena
Ethena (ENA) $ 0.551054 3.76%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 5.65 2.07%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000009 0.81%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 3.01 3.99%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 5.00 1.30%