Recession Cancelled? Experts Weigh In

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee because the debate over the economy’s future is not going away. From warnings of a downturn to bold calls that the recession has been cancelled, the clash of views shapes how investors look at everything from equities to Bitcoin (BTC) and the technologies driving the next cycle.

Recession Cancelled? Why Wall Street Is Divided on Bitcoin, AI, and Market Cycles

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The US recession drumbeat refuses to fade, but markets are increasingly tuning it out.

On one side, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi maintains a 48% probability that the US economy will tip into recession within the next 12 months. His outlook suggests lingering fragility despite resilient growth data.

Zandi’s warning echoes recent consumer and labor market data showing mixed signals. Retail sales remain strong, jobless claims have ticked higher, and inflation’s path remains uncertain.

“Investors who think the recession risk has gone away are mistaken,” Zandi cautioned.

The analyst notes that shocks in energy markets or tighter credit conditions could quickly upend growth.

On the other hand, Global Macro Investor’s Julien Bittel Visser insists the “recession is cancelled.” In a recent conversation with Anthony Pompliano, he dismissed traditional macro fears.

The investor highlighted how narratives of contraction are being replaced by enthusiasm around technology and digital assets.

“The only thing that matters now is AI and crypto…Everything else is just noise,” Visser said.

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Visser argues that equity markets and Bitcoin are primed for a melt-up as capital reallocates toward the only two trades that matter: artificial intelligence (AI) and crypto.

He pointed to fresh technical breakouts across Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Sui as evidence of broadening market participation beyond Bitcoin.

He added that the MicroStrategy premium can measure that sentiment. A recent US Crypto News publication explained this as the spread between the company’s Bitcoin holdings and its equity valuation.

When the premium expands, Visser argues, it signals investors are rediscovering risk appetite across the crypto complex.

Against this backdrop, Visser expects year-end portfolio reallocations to play a decisive role.

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Institutional investors who missed Bitcoin’s surge past $100,000 may be forced to raise allocations before closing the books on 2025.

“The bears are crying in the casino,” he said.

This suggests both equities and Bitcoin could rally in tandem if liquidity conditions remain supportive.

Meanwhile, the clash between Zandi’s caution and Visser’s conviction for crypto markets captures a broader theme. Traditional macro signals still point to risk, but new regime dynamics are increasingly tied to technological revolutions and alternative assets.

If Visser is right, Bitcoin’s next leg higher may have less to do with GDP prints and more to do with the structural pull of AI-driven capital flows.

Chart of the Day

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Moody’s Machine Learning Model Signals 48% Recession Risk for US in Next 12 Months. Source: Moody’s

The graph shows a 48% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, per Moody’s machine learning model, based on data since 1960. Historical highs above 40% didn’t always lead to recessions, indicating uncertainty.

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Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

Company	At the Close of September 12	Pre-Market Overview
Strategy (MSTR)	$331.44	$329.14 (-0.69%)
Coinbase (COIN)	$323.04	$321.51 (-0.47%)
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)	$29.70	$29.35 (-1.18%)
MARA Holdings (MARA)	$16.31	$16.18 (-0.80%)
Riot Platforms (RIOT)	$15.89	$15.80 (-0.57%)
Core Scientific (CORZ)	$15.86	$15.85 (-0.063%)