Peter Brandt Outlines The Conditions For a 20% XRP Price Drop

As the altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL2) recently hit a new all-time high of $1.19 trillion, veteran trader Peter Brandt, who has over 40 years of experience, shared his latest prediction for XRP, one of the most closely watched altcoins among investors.

Various on-chain and sentiment data support his analysis, helping investors assess both risks and opportunities in October.

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XRP’s Price Structure Suggests a Possible Sharp Correction

In a recent analysis on X (formerly Twitter), Brandt identified a classic descending triangle pattern on the XRP chart. The formation, referenced from Edwards and Magee’s technical analysis textbook, typically signals a downtrend continuation.

Although the pattern is bearish, Brandt maintained a cautious tone. He avoided making absolute statements but pointed out a specific condition that could confirm a deeper decline.

“On the right is a developing descending triangle. ONLY IF it closes below 2.68743 (then I’ll be a hater), then it should drop to 2.22163,” Brandt stated.

At press time, XRP is trading around $2.85. This means a 6% drop from its current level could trigger a potential decline of more than 20%.

Brandt’s prediction comes as XRP faces several negative signals from the broader market. According to data from Santiment, negative sentiment toward XRP has reached its highest level in six months.

However, using contrarian reasoning, Santiment argued that such strong negative sentiment might indicate a potential rebound, based on XRP’s historical price recoveries.

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Still, another overlooked factor is the decline in Google search interest for XRP. Data from Google Trends shows that XRP searches hit a three-month low in late September and are now below 25 points.

The combination of bearish sentiment data from Santiment and declining search interest could make Brandt’s downside condition more likely to be met.

Mid-Level Holders Begin Selling After a Year of Accumulation

Another factor reinforcing the bearish outlook is the distribution of XRP supply.

According to Santiment’s chart, wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP — typically mid-tier investors — have started selling for the first time in a year.

The percentage of supply held by this group rose from around 6% in October 2024 to a peak of 10.76% in September 2025, before dropping to 10% in early October 2025.

This sell-off could indicate profit-taking or declining confidence among mid-level holders, both of which are often precursors to increased selling pressure in the market. Because this group controls a significant portion of XRP’s circulating supply, their actions can strongly influence price trends.

Overall, Peter Brandt’s forecast highlights the downside risks for XRP in October, with the descending triangle pattern at the core of his analysis. With high FUD levels, low search interest, and mid-tier holder selling, XRP may face heightened volatility in the coming weeks.