Over $16 Billion in October Options Expiry Tests BTC and ETH

More than $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on October 31, 2025, at 8:00 UTC on Deribit. This marks one of the largest monthly crypto derivatives events of the year.

This expiry surpasses last week’s $6 billion event due to the monthly rollover of October contracts. Traders and investors should closely watch max pain levels and positioning, both of which could impact short-term price action.

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Bitcoin Options Face Fragile Market Structure

Bitcoin trades at $109,287 as of this writing. During this expiry, 124,171 contracts worth $13.59 billion will close. The max pain price sits at $114,000, which is the level where most option holders lose value.

Historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to move toward the max pain zone as expiry nears, a result of market makers hedging their positions.

The put-to-call ratio is 0.70, indicating a mild bullish bias among traders. Nevertheless, Deribit data shows a total of 124,171 Bitcoin options open interest. The call open interest of 73,001 contracts exceeds put open interest at 51,171, resulting in a put/call ratio of 0.70 across all expirations.

Greeks.live analysts identify the market as “fragile and bidless” after recent liquidations. Key levels are, $112,000 and the CME gap from $110,000 to $111,000.

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Resistance appears at $116,000 to $118,000. If support gives way, traders are watching $106,000, signalling a 3% correction from the current price.

Open interest has dropped from above 100,000 contracts to around 70,000 in a month, showing less trader participation.

This decrease suggests profit-taking or lower conviction at current prices. Falling open interest alongside steady price points to consolidation, with direction uncertain unless new catalysts emerge.

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Ethereum Positioning Reveals Cautious Sentiment

Ethereum trades at $3,854, with 646,902 contracts totalling $2.49 billion set to expire. The max pain level stands at $4,100, just above the current price.

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s put-to-call ratio is 0.70, indicating only mild bullish positioning. Yet Deribit’s Ethereum options statistics reflect a more defensive stance.

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Call open interest stands at 381,462 contracts, surpassing the put open interest of 265,440. This heavy call side suggests that traders are hedging downside risk or holding optimistic views amid bullish positioning in expiring contracts.

“Positioning reads cautiously bullish. With US-China trade tensions visibly easing, upside risk is stronger, and traders are less hedged. ETH positioning leans cautious, with puts outweighing calls,” Deribit analysts stated.

The size of this expiry amplifies its possible effect on spot prices. Altogether, Bitcoin and Ethereum options account for over $16 billion in notional value, making this one of the top crypto derivatives events of October.

Deribit notes cautious optimism tied to improving macro conditions, while Greeks.live warns of ongoing downside risk and exhausted buyers.

As these large positions unwind, volatility could climb quickly. Max pain levels at $114,000 for Bitcoin and $4,100 for Ethereum may influence short-term price movements.