On-Chain Clues Reveal This Rally Is Different

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to a fresh all-time high above $ 118,000, after gaining more than 6% over the past day.

Despite this, on-chain data suggests the current rally remains far from overheated and instead hints at further growth potential.

Room for Further Growth

During the previous peaks in March and December 2024, the MVRV ratio climbed above 2.7 as speculation intensified. The current high, on the other hand, comes with a more moderate reading of 2.2 and reflects a steadier market environment.

According to CryptoQuant, UTXO data show that short-term holders (under one month) now make up just 15% of the market. This is down from 30% during previous highs, which indicates limited new capital inflows and a cautious investor profile.

At the same time, the SOPR for short-term holders means that recent buyers are not aggressively selling, but are keeping sell-side activity muted.

The Miner Position Index (MPI) also continues its downward trend, which points to restrained selling activity as many mining firms opt to accumulate Bitcoin rather than liquidate. Such behavior contrasts sharply with past cycles when rising prices led to rapid distribution as spot and derivatives traders rushed to exit.

Instead, this rally appears to be backed by strategic adoption from nation-states and corporations, and therefore, suggests the possibility of a structurally different bull cycle. CryptoQuant went on to explain,

“As a result, analyzing on-chain data today requires deeper and more contextual interpretation, rather than relying solely on repetitive historical patterns. Because this recent breakout to a new high occurred without signs of overheating, there is solid potential for further price appreciation in the mid-to-long term.”

This pattern of cautious optimism extends further. Data reveals that even amid the price surge, traders remain hesitant to move coins back to exchanges.

Traders Are Holding Tight

Bitcoin has posted almost a 20% price rise since its June 22nd local bottom, yet traders are not rushing to move coins back onto exchanges, according to Santiment.

Instead, holders continue to shift Bitcoin into self-custody wallets. In the past four months alone, exchange balances have dropped by 315,830 BTC, which is a 21% decline. The five-year picture is even more significant.

Since July 2020, 1.88 million Bitcoin have moved away from exchanges, thereby reducing balances by 61%. With fewer coins on exchanges, sudden mass sell-offs become less likely. This means that long-term investors are choosing personal storage over potential short-term trades.