Lower Still on Fed Hawkishness

Markets are quickly recalibrating previously lofty odds of an imminent rate cut as the jets touch down in Jackson Hole for the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Symposium.

The current data does not make the case for a September ease, said Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, speaking with Yahoo News in Wyoming.

“We have inflation that’s too high and has been trending upwards over the past year,” she said. “If the meeting was tomorrow, I would not see a case for reducing interest rates.”

She further argued that inflation numbers are only beginning to show the impact of tariffs and that the full effect wouldn’t be seen until next year.

Hammack’s comments are notable, showing Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to have plenty of support in his hawkish stance despite two dissident dovish votes at the last central bank policy meeting and President Trump’s continuing campaign for lower rates.

Her remarks also come after a series of potential Powell replacements appeared on the airwaves in recent days to argue for sharply lower interest rates. The latest this morning was former St. Louis Fed boss Jim Bullard, who argued for policy rates 100 basis points below the current level.

Just one week ago, bitcoin touched a record high above $124,000 alongside a nearly 100% expectation that the Fed would trim rates next month. Seven days later, those odds have slipped back to 71%, according to CME FedWatch and bitcoin BTC$112,834.86 has plunged nearly 10% to the current $112,800.

Markets will get to hear from Powell himself at his keynote address on Friday morning and at this point it’s nearly certain he’ll not turn dove. Instead, he’s likely to emphasize that inflation continues to remain too hot and thus the need to take a wait and see approach towards adjusting monetary policy.