Layer-1 Sector Leads Altcoin Gains in First Week of Q4

The first week of October delivered a strong performance for the crypto market, with Bitcoin setting record highs and the layer-1 sector leading the charge among altcoins.

The category, which includes assets like Solana, Avalanche, BNB, Sui, and Aptos, posted a 12.54% gain from September 29th to October 5th, according to Velo data. The layer-2 sector was the closest competitor, rising 11.32% over the same period, while other niches, such as meme coins, DeFi, gaming, and AI, saw more modest returns of around 5% or less.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, and Solana have surged by double-digits over the past week, per data from CoinGecko. Aptos has been a standout, climbing 25.3% over the period to trade at $5.32.

This momentum is reflected in market sentiment.

On prediction market Myriad, launched by Decrypt’s parent company DASTAN, users place an 83% chance on the layer-1 token Aptos trading above $5 at the end of October 7.

“October has kicked off with a strong move, another confirmation of the uptrend,” Georgii Verbitskii, a derivatives trader and founder of decentralized protocol TYMIO, told Decrypt.

“With gold rising and rates easing, the setup looks very healthy,” Verbitskii added.

He believes this outlook bodes well for a sustained rally through the year’s end, noting that “historically, October through December are the most active and bullish months for Bitcoin.”

With a median return of 52% in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin has indeed displayed exceptional gains over the past decade, according to CoinGlass data.

A ‘selective’ altcoin rally

Verbitskii cautioned that the anticipated altcoin rally will be selective, aligning with expert views from a previous Decrypt report that an “alt season” may be delayed, but not cancelled.

“I don’t expect a broad altcoin rally like in previous cycles,” he said. “This time, growth will be likely driven by select, high-quality projects rather than the entire market moving at once.”

Among major layer-1 tokens, he singled out Solana for its standout potential. “Solana remains one of the most interesting assets among major altcoins,” Verbitskii noted, citing its strong fundamentals. “If the current market momentum holds, a move toward the $300 to $400 range by year-end looks realistic.”

Predictors on Myriad agree, placing a 60% chance on Solana hitting a new all-time high by the end of the year.