Japanese Giant’s Bitcoin Bet Could Be Failing, But Why?

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee because something unusual is unfolding in Japan’s Bitcoin experiment. Metaplanet, once hailed as a digital gold pioneer, now trades below the value of its own Bitcoin holdings — a subtle yet symbolic crack in the market’s faith in the corporate Bitcoin model.

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Japan’s Bitcoin standard-bearer, Metaplanet Inc., has entered rare territory, trading below the value of its BTC reserves for the first time.

The Tokyo-listed firm, which holds 30,823 BTC, now has an mNAV of 0.99, signaling that investors are assigning less value to its stock than to the Bitcoin it owns outright.

The decline comes despite strong fundamentals:

• 115.7% growth in Q3 Bitcoin-related revenue.
• Raised 2025 guidance to ¥46 billion ($302.5 million), and
• A cleaner balance sheet after redeeming bonds and paying down debt.

However, since hitting an all-time high in June, Metaplanet’s shares have plunged around 70%, wiping out the premium that once made it one of the most-watched Bitcoin treasuries in Asia.

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“Why did my Metaplanet models fail?… All my models were based on mNAV premium arbitrage before compression to 1, but the compression occurred very quickly. Tons of new companies didn’t help as everyone fought for inflows,” wrote pseudonymous analyst Climb the Ladder on X.

According to the analyst, while the company may still outperform Bitcoin, the rapid unwind exposed how fragile the treasury-company trade can be when sentiment shifts.

The drop comes only days after Metaplanet President Simon Gerovich said the firm was temporarily suspending certain stock acquisition rights to refine its capital strategy.

“We are now temporarily suspending the 20th-22nd Series of Stock Acquisition Rights as we optimize our capital raising strategies in our relentless pursuit of expanding our Bitcoin holdings and maximizing BTC Yield,” he shared in a post.

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Still, the mNAV inversion represents a profound test of faith in Metaplanet’s business model and the broader thesis that Bitcoin-rich companies can act as superior long-term vehicles for BTC exposure.

The company heads toward a pivotal Extraordinary General Meeting on December 22, but is this moment just a correction or a deeper reckoning for the corporate Bitcoin standard itself?

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Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview