Gold Outshines in 2025 as BTC-Gold Ratio Eyes Q4 Breakout

Gold is the standout performer of 2025, climbing more than 33%.

That’s three times the gain of the Nasdaq 100 index and nearly double bitcoin’s (BTC) performance. In practice that means it now takes just 31.2 ounces of gold to buy one BTC, a measure known as the BTC-XAU ratio, down from 40 ounces last December.

The metal, typically used as a haven in times of financial stress, has been underpinned by falling government bond yields across major Western economies, a reflection of high debt burdens, persistent inflation concerns and slowing growth. These dynamics reinforce gold’s historical role as a store of value, and highlight why it arguably deserves to be the benchmark against which all other investments are measured.

Technical analysis shows the BTC-XAU ratio has been consolidating inside a large ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern that has been forming since 2017. The ratio end-2024 level mirrored peaks seen at the end of 2021, but has since corrected by about 25%. The structure now points to a potential breakout by late in the fourth quarter or early next year.

Importantly, previous cycles in this ratio saw severe drawdowns — 84% in 2019, 75% in 2020 and 78% in 2022 — before new highs were established. The current pullback is far shallower, suggesting underlying strength and keeping the long-term bullish case intact.