ETH at Risk of Further Pullback If This Key Support Cracks

Ethereum has been consolidating after a sharp rejection near the $4,500 resistance zone. Price action remains choppy and indecisive, with the bulls trying to hold the key support levels while the broader market sentiment leans defensive. Macro support zones remain intact for now, but the recent drop in bullish momentum is clearly visible in both price structure and RSI behaviour.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

The daily structure shows that ETH has broken below its ascending parallel channel and recently lost the momentum that carried it above $4,400. After failing to hold the lower trendline and the 100-day moving average, located around the $4,100 mark, the asset is now hovering just above the $3,500 support zone.

The RSI is also stuck below 50, suggesting that strength is still lacking. If the buyers fail to protect this area, a move toward the 200-day moving average around $3,200 level, and even the $3,000 demand zone is likely.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, ETH has formed a symmetrical triangle right below the key supply zone around $4,200. The asset has broken below the triangle and is testing its lower bound again. Breakouts from this pattern typically lead to volatility spikes, especially if the price gets rejected from the lower trendline of the channel.

A break back above $4,000 could push the price toward the $4,600 resistance, while a breakdown would bring the $3,500 level into play. Moreover, the RSI is recovering slightly but hasn’t signalled a strong breakout yet, keeping the short-term outlook neutral.

On-Chain Analysis

Exchange Netflow

Ethereum’s netflow data paints a cautious picture. The majority of days over the last few weeks have shown strong outflows from exchanges, suggesting holders prefer to keep ETH in private wallets rather than preparing to sell.

However, this hasn’t translated into strong price continuation yet, implying accumulation may be happening during consolidation. As long as the outflows continue and panic inflows don’t spike, downside pressure remains limited.