Dogecoin Price Could Finally Rally as Bullish Divergence Appears

The Dogecoin price has spent days stuck between $0.24 and $0.27, dodging both sharp crashes and meaningful rallies. In the past week, it’s down 2.9%, while over the last month, it’s up just 4.2% — a neutral stretch that shows how evenly matched buyers and sellers are.

But this balance isn’t random. On-chain data shows heavy supply clusters keeping Dogecoin boxed in, while leverage data confirms that neither side has enough momentum to break the deadlock.

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Supply Density Explains Why Dogecoin Price Is Stuck

Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap — which visualizes how much supply exists across price levels — highlights why the Dogecoin price has avoided big swings.

Between $0.247–$0.249 (at press time), roughly 1.89 billion DOGE sit, creating a thick cushion that protects against deeper declines, especially under $0.24.

Above that, resistance zones are equally packed: between $0.261–$0.262, there’s around 1.39 billion DOGE, and another 1.27 billion DOGE between $0.262–$0.264. These clusters specifically cushion the $0.27 level.

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This tight layering of supply has made the Dogecoin price resilient to sharp drops but also unable to rally above $0.26-$0.27 meaningfully. It’s like a wall above and a floor below, trapping the price in a narrow corridor.

Derivatives data support this balance. According to the Bitget DOGE/USDT liquidation map alone, long positions total $304 million, while shorts are close behind at $331 million. With both sides almost even, there’s no leverage imbalance to force a squeeze or trend extension.

Together, the heatmap and derivatives data explain why Dogecoin keeps dodging both crashes and rallies — there’s too much resistance to rise and too much support to fall.

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One Key Chart Pattern Hints at a 20% Rebound

On the 4-hour chart, the Dogecoin price is now showing a familiar setup — a bullish divergence. This pattern forms when price makes a lower low, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which measures market momentum between 0 and 100 — makes a higher low. It signals that sellers are losing strength even if the price hasn’t yet reacted.

Between October 8 and 9, this divergence appeared again. The last time it showed up, between September 22 and 26, Dogecoin rallied 20%, jumping from $0.22 to $0.26.

A similar 20% move now could lift DOGE from its current range to near $0.29, allowing it to breach the heavy supply bands between $0.26–$0.27. Breaking through those zones could finally kickstart a short-term uptrend.

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Symmetrical Triangle Still Defines The Next DOGE Price Move

On the daily chart, the DOGE price continues to trade inside a symmetrical triangle, a structure that forms when both buyers and sellers keep price action tightly contained. This pattern reflects indecision — a setup that typically precedes a strong breakout once either side gains control.

For bulls, a close above $0.27–$0.29 could confirm an upside breakout (now possible with bullish divergence flashing on the 4-hour chart), signaling the start of a short rally. For bears, a daily candle close below $0.24 would invalidate the bullishness and open the door for a deeper correction. A dip under $0.22 would turn the structure bearish.

Until then, the Dogecoin price remains in a careful balance — dodging both crashes and rallies for one clear reason: supply/ sentiment remain too evenly matched for now, but one 20% move could finally tip the scales.