Citi Caps Year-End at $4,300, But ETF outflows Challenge Outlook

Ethereum (ETH) has been consolidating between $4,200 and $4,700 after setting an all-time high last August. While many investors anticipate a strong fourth quarter, Citigroup has issued a tempered outlook, projecting ETH to close the year at $4,300.

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According to a Reuters report, Citi attributes Ethereum’s demand to the growing adoption of tokenization and stablecoins.

However, the bank cautions that much of ETH’s recent price action may be fueled by market sentiment rather than fundamentals. The note highlighted, “Current prices are above activity estimates, potentially driven by buying pressure and excitement over use-cases.”

ETH's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview

ETF Flows and Diverging Analyst Predictions

One of the main concerns weighing on Ethereum’s outlook is ETF activity. Citi expects ETH exchange-traded funds to attract weaker inflows compared to Bitcoin, a factor that could dampen bullish momentum. This comes after recent volatility in spot ETH funds, where inflows briefly returned following weeks of heavy outflows.

Interestingly, not all institutions share Citi’s cautious stance. Standard Chartered raised its year-end Ethereum target to $7,500, citing the asset’s stronger position in digital treasuries and staking yields. BlackRock’s $363 million Ethereum purchase has further reinforced confidence in ETH’s long-term value.

Ethereum (ETH)’s Bullish and Bearish Scenarios Ahead

Citi laid out a range of possible outcomes for Ethereum. In a bullish case, ETH could climb to $6,400, driven by expanding institutional adoption and rising activity across decentralized applications.

On the other hand, a bearish scenario projects a sharp drop to $2,200 if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or equity markets face a downturn.

Meanwhile, digital asset bank Sygnum has painted a more optimistic picture, pointing to Ethereum upgrades, shrinking exchange reserves, and growing institutional interest as catalysts for a potential supply squeeze.

If demand continues to rise under these conditions, ETH could retest its all-time highs faster than expected.

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Ethereum is trading near $4,500, about 8% below its record peak. With institutional demand picking up but ETF flows posing uncertainty, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether ETH leans closer to Citi’s conservative $4,300 call or accelerates toward the bullish $6,400 target.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview