Cardano ETF Approval Odds Hit 80% for 2025 as Grayscale Sparks ADA Rally

ADA token is enjoying a surge in both price and sentiment as fresh developments fuel optimism for a spot Cardano ETF (exchange-traded fund) approval in 2025.

The push for altcoin-based ETFs continues in the US as issuers rally behind the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance.

Cardano ETF Approval Odds Soar Past 80%

According to decentralized prediction market Polymarket, traders now see an 80% chance that the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) will greenlight a Cardano ETF this year.

Cardano ETF Approval Odds. Source: Polymarket

Grayscale Investments’ recent move has amplified that confidence. The asset manager registered the Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF in Delaware alongside an HBAR ETF, as BeInCrypto reported.

The registration was filed on August 12, 2025, with CSC Delaware Trust acting as the registered agent in Delaware.

Delaware’s public registry portal shows new filings for the Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF and Grayscale Hedera Trust ETF. The step is often seen as the precursor to a formal ETF application.

“Both networks have growing RWA adoption stories, and this step often comes before a spot ETF filing; a green light can bring a wave of institutional capital,” wrote Web3 researcher Justin Wu.

Grayscale’s Cardano Trust ETF Filing. Source: Delaware’s public registry portal

These general statutory trusts are a common first step in Grayscale’s ETF playbook. It is typically followed by S-1 filings with the SEC.

While the trust registrations do not confirm approval, they signal Grayscale’s intent to broaden its altcoin ETF lineup beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

This expansion aligns with a growing institutional appetite for diversified crypto exposure. Cardano’s peer-reviewed development approach and scalable blockchain architecture have positioned it as a contender for mainstream adoption through regulated investment products.

Regulatory Process Already in Motion

Meanwhile, the SEC acknowledged NYSE Arca’s 19b-4 filing for the proposed Cardano ETF earlier this year, initiating the formal review process.

Acknowledgement of such filings is an early but essential step toward approval, indicating regulatory engagement rather than outright rejection.

For Cardano supporters, this mirrors the trajectory of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs, where early filings set the stage for eventual approval after months of scrutiny.

If successful, the ETF could allow traditional investors to gain ADA exposure without managing digital wallets or private keys.

Meanwhile, analysts anticipate the implementation of a standardized crypto ETF framework soon, which could see joint approvals for each spot ETF as opposed to individual.