BTC.D Pulls Back as Bitcoin Hits New ATH, Alt Season Incoming?

The crypto market is witnessing a notable shift. Bitcoin (BTC) just reached a new all-time high (ATH) in July 2025. However, at the same time, the Bitcoin Dominance index (BTC.D) dropped from 66% to 64.5%.

This decline is giving altcoin investors a reason to be optimistic. The total market capitalization of altcoins is now growing faster than Bitcoin’s.

Altcoin Market Cap Rises, Analysts Predict Altcoin Season

According to TradingView data, the altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) has recovered nearly 10% since early July. It recently surpassed $1.2 trillion.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Dominance has dropped from 66% to 64.5%, the most significant drop since May.

Notably, on July 9, when Bitcoin reached a new ATH above $111,000, BTC.D continued to fall. This suggests that altcoins are gaining market cap faster than Bitcoin, a rare and long-awaited sign for altcoin investors.

Additionally, pseudonymous crypto analyst Master of Crypto said that Bitcoin does not need to crash for an altcoin season to begin. Instead, if BTC’s price moves sideways while dominance keeps falling, it could create the perfect conditions for altcoins — especially low- and mid-cap tokens — to rally.

He also pointed out that the intensity of the altcoin season depends on how deeply BTC.D drops, specifically concerning the EMA50 and EMA200 levels.

“If BTC.D falls below the 50-day EMA → we might see a mini alt season (low/mid caps pump). If it breaks the 200-day EMA → get ready for a major alt season (ETH, SOL, memes go wild),” Master of Crypto predicted.

Stablecoins Rise on Exchanges, Investors Loaded With ‘Dry Powder’

Another key factor is the high amount of stablecoins held on exchanges, often called “dry powder”, ready to ignite the market.

According to CryptoQuant analyst oinonen_t, USDT and USDC reserves on Binance have consistently stayed high, exceeding $31 billion in total value. Meanwhile, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are declining.

These two factors indicate that investors are preparing for an altcoin season.

“So what’s behind the decoupling of stablecoin and Bitcoin reserves? First of all, during a bull cycle, Bitcoin units are usually withdrawn from exchanges into private wallets and stored long-term in cold wallets. On the other hand, the growing stablecoin reserves reflect sidelined capital — unused ‘dry powder’ ready to deploy,” oinonen_t explained.

However, repeated predictions of an altcoin season over the past few years have turned into something like the “boy who cried wolf,” leaving investors skeptical and cautious.

A recent report by BeInCrypto also pointed to growing doubt among retail investors. Still, well-known market analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes that skepticism is a natural part of a bull cycle.