Bitcoin’s Cheat Code? 50 EMA Could Decide BTC’s Price in Q4

Bitcoin trades near $112K as analysts watch the 50 EMA, fading momentum, and a CME gap for Q4 direction.

Bitcoin is trading near $112,100 as analysts focus on the role of its long-term moving average, cooling momentum, and a newly opened CME gap.

Traders see key support and resistance levels that may decide the market’s direction in the final quarter of 2025.

50 EMA as the “Golden Line”

Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader called the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) Bitcoin’s “cheat code.” His chart shows repeated retests of this level in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Each one triggered what he described as a “Bullish Retest,” with price then climbing to new highs.

BTC is now approaching the 50 EMA again. The average sits just under $100,000. Merlijn said:

“All bounces are vertical rallies. Every break is capitulation. Q4 survival or destruction depends on this line.”

Traders are watching to see if price will hold above the level or break below it.

Momentum Cooling

Data from CryptoQuant shows the 30-day momentum index has turned neutral-to-bearish. Analyst CryptoBusy said this shows fading buying strength and more downside risk.

Bitcoin recently fell from $115,400 to $108,600. The $108,600 level now serves as support, while resistance is seen between $111,000 and $112,000.

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CME Gap Opens

Bitcoin CME futures opened with a gap between $110,500 and $111,300. Price later rallied to around $112,930, leaving the gap unfilled.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that CME gaps often close quickly but added: “It has been quite a while since we did open with a gap like this.” He said he does not see the gap in play “until BTC starts trading below $111K.”

A drop under $111,000 could lead traders to target the gap for closure. If support holds, the gap may remain open for longer, as has occurred in past cases.

Bitcoin is trading inside a tight range. Analysts point to the 50 EMA as the critical level for Q4. Whether price bounces from this line or breaks below it may decide the next major move.