Bitcoin’s (BTC) Fair Value Is $170K, JPMorgan Argues in Gold-Based Model

Bitcoin BTC$103,064.19 has room to run — and fast — according to a new forecast from JPMorgan analysts who see the cryptocurrency reaching as high as $170,000 within the next six to 12 months.

In a note published this week, strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team said the recent deleveraging in crypto derivatives, particularly bitcoin perpetual futures, is largely behind the market, setting the stage for renewed upside.

“The message from recent stabilization is that deleveraging in perpetual futures is likely behind us,” the report said, referring to October and November selloffs that followed a wave of liquidations and the $120 million Balancer exploit.

The bank’s price projection is based on a comparison with gold. Bitcoin has long been positioned as “digital gold,” but JPMorgan’s model suggests it’s currently trading well below where it should be when adjusted for risk. Their framework assumes bitcoin consumes 1.8 times more risk capital than gold, and given the $6.2 trillion in private investment in gold via ETFs, bars and coins, bitcoin’s market cap would need to grow by two-thirds — from around $2.1 trillion — to match that exposure. That implies a price of $170,000, up from around $102,000 today.

It’s a sharp reversal from late 2024, when bitcoin traded far above this model’s estimated value.

Today, it’s roughly $68,000 below the gold-based fair value benchmark, the team says.

The call comes at a time of shifting investor behavior across asset classes. Retail investors are continuing to buy U.S. equities and gold, but with gold volatility ticking higher, bitcoin may increasingly become the preferred hedge for equity risk, the note suggests. Recent gold purchases by central banks and retail buyers have surged in dollar terms, but bitcoin now appears more attractive from a risk-adjusted standpoint.

JPMorgan downplayed fears that tightening U.S. banking reserves would spill over into broader markets. While liquidity among banks is strained, broader money supply and non-bank liquidity continue to expand, supporting risk assets like equities and crypto.

Still, the bank’s projection isn’t based on sentiment or momentum alone. “This is a mechanical exercise,” the team wrote.