Bitcoin Slows Down, But Fall 2025 Could Ignite Its Biggest Rally Yet

The current crypto market cycle has shown signs of slowing for the past week or so, with BTC losing roughly $15,000 since its peak.

Despite this, experts anticipate a major rally in fall 2025.

Record-Breaking Peak This Fall

Upon analyzing Bitcoin’s long-term holding trends, measured by the percentage held for over a year based on realized market cap, CryptoQuant found that past cycles (phase 1 and 2) experienced sharp surges, which led to pronounced peaks.

On the other hand, the current Phase 3 displays a gradually flattening uptrend and a lengthening cycle. Major factors behind this pattern are the introduction of spot ETFs, growing institutional adoption, and even nation-level engagement with Bitcoin.

An important feature of this cycle is that inflows into altcoins often coincide with pauses in overall market momentum, which has been observed repeatedly. Unlike 2023-2024, when Bitcoin dominated market attention, capital is increasingly shifting toward altcoins, as broader diversification continued.

Looking ahead, a rate cut expected in September, alongside potential approval of spot ETFs for altcoins in October, points to a favorable environment for renewed growth. From a cycle perspective, the current consolidation phase may be a precursor to a stronger uptrend in late 2025.

In fact, CryptoQuant believes that investors could view any additional corrections during this period as potential entry points.

Late 2025 Crypto Rally

This aligns with CryptoBirb’s recent observation, which revealed that Bitcoin’s bull market could be approaching its final stage. After briefly surpassing $124K earlier this month, Bitcoin has faced choppy trading, briefly dipping below $109K as momentum turned fragile.

However, historical data indicate that the current cycle is 93% complete, and a potential blow-off top is projected between late October and mid-November 2025. The crypto analyst referenced prior bull runs and noted that the 2010-2011 cycle lasted for 350 days, the 2011-2013 cycle lasted for 746, the 2015-2017 one went on for 1,068 days, and the 2018-2021 cycle lasted for 1,061 days.

The current cycle, which has already spanned around 1,010 days, aligns with expected post-halving peaks, which historically occur 366-548 days after the event. Following the April 2024 halving, the anticipated peak window is October 19-November 20, 2025.