Bitcoin Poised for Huge Gains as Gold Correlation Suggests Late November Surge

Bitcoin remains correlated with the price of gold, albeit with a considerable lag, meaning that there could be huge gains ahead. 

Bitcoin has been highly correlated to gold with an 8-week lag, observed investor and analyst Ted Pillows this week. This means that the price of BTC could follow what has happened with gold roughly two months later, around late November.

“Right now, gold is hitting new highs, which means Bitcoin will do this next,” Pillows added before cautioning that there could be another correction before the big fourth quarter for crypto.

Gold prices hit an all-time high of $3,900 per ounce on Wednesday.

$BTC has been highly correlated to Gold with an 8-week lag.

Right now, Gold is hitting new highs, which means Bitcoin will do this next.

Maybe we could see another correction, but overall Q4 will be big for Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/RkOTTgsfG3

— Ted (@TedPillows) September 30, 2025

When Bitcoin ATH?

If Bitcoin was going to run a catch-up to gold, it would imply now is the time, said venture capitalist Chris Burniske.

“Gold has a head start, but we all know how it will end,” added trader Luke Martin.

Last month, analyst Miles Deutscher described the increasing gold prices as an anchor for Bitcoin, implying that it will be pulled up after the lag. Gold has gained a whopping 47% since the beginning of this year, which is monumental for the usually slow-moving precious yellow metal. Comparatively, Bitcoin has gained just 27% since January 1, and coming second to the commodity is very rare.

“The good news for Bitcoin is that sooner or later, gold will get tired,” said ByteTree analyst Charlie Morris last week.

Earlier this year, head of growth at Theya, Joe Consorti, said Bitcoin follows gold’s directional bias with a lag of 100-150 days, saying, “When the printer roars to life, gold sniffs it out first, then Bitcoin follows.”

You may also like:

“Monetary easing and seller exhaustion give BTC the same macro backdrop as last year’s surge past $100,000,” he said on Wednesday before predicting:

“If BTC rises by October’s historical average, $150,000 by Halloween may be in store.”

October is here, and bitcoin is off to a strong start.

Monetary easing and seller exhaustion give BTC the same macro backdrop as last year’s surge past $100k.

If BTC rises by October’s historical average, $150,000 by Halloween may be in store.

[Presented by @JoinHorizon_] pic.twitter.com/pTTUVhj5AQ

— Joe Consorti ⚡️ (@JoeConsorti) October 1, 2025

Why Is Gold Surging?

Gold prices have been surging in recent months due to trade uncertainty from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Central banks have also been buying gold while economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks have increased.

Meanwhile, the US dollar has weakened by 12% this year, and inflation continues to be a problem in many countries, prompting investors to flock to the safe-haven commodity.

The good news for crypto investors is that Bitcoin usually follows, while end-of-year and bull market seasonality could see a solid couple of months ahead for digital gold.