Bitcoin Dips Below $100K in 'Mid-Cycle Shakeout' Amid Bond Market Volatility

In brief

Bitcoin fell below $100,000 twice this week, down 9.3% from last week.
Bitcoin ETFs attracted $239 million in inflows Thursday, breaking a six-day losing streak that marked one of the worst redemption weeks since launch.
Analysts attribute the decline to bond market volatility and view it as a mid-cycle correction rather than trend reversal, citing improving macro conditions.

Bitcoin dipped below $100,000 for the second time this week Friday morning after having dropped 2.7% in the past 24 hours. BTC has lost 9.1% since this time last week.

“Bitcoin’s dip below $100K looks more like a mid-cycle shakeout than a trend reversal,” Bitunix analyst Dean Chen told Decrypt. “ETF data show a net inflow of roughly $239 million, suggesting capital is still entering the space despite short-term price pressure. The flow profile implies rotation rather than exit—investors are redistributing exposure while maintaining risk appetite.”

Yesterday Bitcoin ETFs managed to snap their 6-day red streak by pulling in $239 million worth of funds. It had been shaping up to be one of the worst weeks for share redemptions since the funds launched last January.

Bitcoin dipped below $100,000 on Tuesday for the first time since May. It had recovered by midweek, but has slipped again. Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid said in a note shared with Decrypt that current market pessimism can be attributed to U.S. bond market whiplash.

“Wednesday saw a sharp yield sell-off following a solid ADP employment report and then better ISM services data,” he wrote. “However, that move was completely reversed yesterday after a weak U.S. job cuts release, with the 10yr Treasury yield falling -7.6bps—its biggest daily decline since the U.S.-China trade escalation on October 10.”

The decline triggered a global risk-off move, he added, which saw the S&P 500 drop -1.12%, and the Nasdaq fall -1.90%.

On October 10, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to hike tariffs on good imported from China by 100%. The resulting panic sent crypto prices crashing and wiped out a record-setting $19 billion worth of crypto derivatives positions in one day.

But Chen doesn’t think things are quite so dire as they were at the start of the month. He said macro conditions are slowly starting to improve, which should help buoy Bitcoin’s price.

“With the Fed ending quantitative tightening on December 1 and having cut rates in both September and October, liquidity is gradually turning supportive again,” he said. “That backdrop makes this pullback a function of leverage reset rather than fundamental deterioration.”

On prediction market Myriad, launched by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, traders remain bullish on Bitcoin’s chances, placing a 55.5% chance on the cryptocurrency’s next move taking it to $115,000 instead of $85,000.