Arthur Hayes Makes Concerning Prediction For Monad

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects most layer-1 blockchain networks to fade, arguing that only Ethereum and Solana have the institutional use cases needed to survive long term.

In a November 28 appearance on the Altcoin Daily podcast, Hayes said the growing list of alternative base-layer blockchains has not changed his view. He still expects the market to consolidate around a small group of dominant networks.

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Why Hayes Thinks Ethereum and Solana Will Endure

Hayes argued that Ethereum’s role in institutional adoption is central to its durability.

According to him, Ethereum will be used by these investors to achieve their Web3 goals, while he expects a “basket of main public L1s” to remain relevant in the years ahead.

“Ethereum, this whole ecosystem, is going to be used by TradFi to achieve whatever they want to do within Web3…Ethereum is obviously winning and going to keep winning,” he said.

He pointed to Solana as the only other chain with similar staying power. Hayes cited the network’s recent rebound, though he said its next growth driver is unclear.

According to him, the meme coin frenzy on Solana has petered out, and the network would need to find “new tricks” to boost its growth.

“Solana needs a new trick. I don’t know what that new trick is, but again, it’s the number two largest L1. I think they’ll find something,” Hayes noted.

Despite that optimism, Hayes said Solana is unlikely to outperform Ethereum over time. He added that “pretty much every other L1 besides Ethereum or Solana is a zero.”

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Ethereum and Solana remain the two largest layer-1 networks by market capitalization and have attracted institutional attention from firms such as Franklin Templeton.

Bearish View on Monad

Meanwhile, Hayes was far more skeptical about Monad, which launched its MON token and public blockchain this week.

The project markets itself as a high-performance layer-1 with parallelized execution compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine, prompting some industry participants to call it the “next ETH killer.”

Hayes rejected that characterization by declaring that “pretty much every other L1 besides Ethereum or Solana is a zero and they’re not going to do very well.”

He described Monad as “another bear chain” and predicted the token “is going to go down 99% because it’s another high-FTV, low-float piece of VC lint.”

Though he acknowledged buying some MON tokens, he said its early price moves do not translate into durable value.

“Every coin gets their first pump, and people want to believe in the new L1 because everybody wants to invest in the new Ethereum like they would have in 2014 when everyone missed it, me included. But again, that doesn’t mean that it’s going to actually have any real use case,” Hayes emphasized.

Considering this, Hayes said his broader market thesis still centers on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, but noted that ZCash and Ethena could round out his top-five list.