Analysts Warn Government Closure May Delay Solana ETF Approval

Despite delays, experts say the approval of several altcoin ETFs, including Solana’s, are “really 100% now.”

Industry observers have warned that a potential U.S. government shutdown could push spot Solana (SOL) ETF approvals past October.

The recent introduction of new listing standards is also adding further uncertainty to the timeline because the experts don’t know how quickly the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will act under the new rules.

Shutdown Risk Stalls Crypto ETF Momentum

Over the last few months, several asset managers have been actively engaging with the SEC and updating their S-1 registration forms. These revisions are often seen as a sign that the regulator is getting closer to giving the green light for an investment product.

However, a federal shutdown would pause most of this progress. Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, wrote on X that three issuers believe next week could be a realistic window for a spot SOL ETF green light, though he cautioned that government closure might disrupt the process. James Seyffart shared the same sentiment, suggesting that things could get “wonky.”

Congress has yet to reach an agreement on the budget for the new fiscal year, and if the deadline passes without a deal, the U.S. government will face a shutdown. This would force many federal agencies, including the SEC, to suspend most of their operations until funding is restored.

The financial watchdog confirmed in a September 30 statement that if the government comes to a standstill, it will be unable to fast-track the approval of registration statements like S-1 filings.

In such a situation, the SEC’s database would continue to receive submissions, but staff furloughs would mean suspending non-essential reviews. Since crypto ETFs are unlikely to be considered “essential,” their review process would be put on hold until normal operations resume.

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New Listing Guidelines Could Affect Timeline

A possible government closure is not the only factor shaping the launch schedule for these investment products. Journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that the SEC has asked LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE ETF issuers to withdraw their 19b-4 filings since these are no longer required under the new generic listing standards.

She also said that withdrawals could begin soon, although it is still unclear how quickly the regulator will act on pending applications under the new rules. Under the previous process, deadlines for several ETFs, including SOL, XRP, and DOGE, were supposed to begin this month.

Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, and Canary Capital are currently in the race to launch spot SOL ETFs, with the firms submitting amended S-1 documents that also include staking provisions to the SEC last week. Following the development, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas had said that approval odds for altcoin ETFs were “really 100% now.”