BTC Nearing Exhaustion or Gearing Up for $130K Next?

Bitcoin has officially entered price discovery once again, trading just below $122,000 at the time of writing. After months of consolidation and multiple failed breakout attempts, the bulls have finally regained full control.

The breakout above the previous all-time high around $112,000 was followed by explosive momentum, and investors are wondering how much further BTC will run.

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

The daily chart shows that the asset is still respecting the long-term ascending channel, as it rebounded from its lower boundary and is currently rallying toward the mid-line. The price decisively closed above the $112,000 previous all-time high, a level that acted as a distribution zone for over a month. Following this breakout, BTC printed several bullish continuation candles, pushing all the way up to $122,000.

Yet, a retracement into the $114K–$117K zone is probable to cool the market down. This pullback would not invalidate the bullish structure but instead offer a healthier continuation setup. As long as the price holds above the $114K breakout level, the medium-term structure remains strongly bullish.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4H chart shows a clean breakout from the recent range and a near-vertical price expansion, confirming the daily momentum. After breaking above the descending channel, Bitcoin formed a strong impulsive leg. As a result, the RSI is now extremely elevated at 78+, hinting at potential short-term exhaustion.

The 4H chart also highlights the newly formed Fair Value Gaps stacked below the price, which could get revisited in the coming sessions or days. These FVGs can both attract the price and act as potential support. As long as BTC remains above the 114K block, short dips into this region would be considered bullish retests.

Moreover, if the price begins to range around the 121K–122K area, it would allow RSI to cool off and provide fresh momentum for the next breakout, without experiencing much correction.

Sentiment Analysis

Bitcoin Funding Rates

Funding rates have started to spike again, reflecting the surge in long-side leverage after the breakout. This sharp uptick in funding confirms that traders are aggressively chasing the move. While elevated funding is expected during trend continuations, it also introduces risk: the higher the leverage imbalance, the more vulnerable the market becomes to a flush.

Historically, when funding remains excessively positive while prices stall or consolidate, it often leads to a liquidation-driven pullback. So far, we haven’t seen aggressive spikes like those in Q1 2024, but it’s something to monitor closely.

If the asset fails to push higher while funding stays elevated, a quick shakeout into the 114K zone is possible. Until then, the sentiment remains bullish but slightly overheated, which aligns with current RSI readings and market structure.