As Bitcoin Matures, Volatility Drops—So Expect Slower Climbs, Say Experts

Bitcoin may be hitting new highs, but the leading cryptocurrency’s ascent could be much slower than previous cycles. 

That’s because volatility in the biggest and oldest digital coin is dampening, experts told Decrypt. And as the asset matures and sophisticated traders make more intelligent bets with Bitcoin, it’s unlikely to boom as quickly as before. 

“Think of it like someone who’s working out—a massive spike higher is like someone crash dieting to hit their weight goal, and then they just lose it three weeks later,” Greg Magadini, Amberdata’s director of derivatives, said. 

He added: “But a slow and steady grind higher is sustainable, unlike a massive, bubble-like rally. As Bitcoin grows in market cap, it takes more money to move it around.”

Bitcoin in previous cycles made sometimes absurd climbs. In 2017, for example, BTC rocketed to $19,345 in December, data provider CoinGecko shows, after starting the year at $786—a 2,360% surge. 

The flagship cryptocurrency’s price hit a new high of $118,667 on Friday, up about 25% from the start of 2025 when it was trading at roughly $93,500. BTC’s realized volatility is now 29.5%, far off 2021’s 100%.

The derivatives market indicates why. In 2021, the options market was considerably smaller, hitting a peak in October of that year of over $15 billion. In May, BTC open options contracts surged to over $42.5 billion on Deribit. 

Now traders are now buying Bitcoin via the new exchange-traded funds—approved last year—and using trading features on them.

It works like this: investors with a lot of BTC are able to sell call options—contracts betting on the future price of an asset—adding liquidity to the market. Volatility decreases as sophisticated traders using this strategy sell options not expecting big price moves. Traders more widely than adjust their expectations and bets accordingly. 

“We see this with equities: When markets are bullish, they grind higher at a slower pace with less volatility,” Magidini said.

“With [BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust] we have a new class of market makers with deep pockets who can warehouse volatility bets easily,” he added, noting that Bitcoin was a smaller asset class previously with smaller market makers.  

The asset is now attracting a more mature class of investor with institutional capital hitting the Bitcoin space, mainly through the new ETFs, market observers told Decrypt.

Bitcoin spot ETFs pulled in $1.17 billion on Thursday, their second-biggest day since their debut in January 2024, led by BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK Invest. On Friday, they remained strong, with about $1.03 billion worth of inflows.

Still, Bitcoin’s dramatic swings may not vanish completely.

“I would definitely not rule out periods of high volatility,” David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, told Decrypt, adding that price surges from now might “be locked into a tighter time period.”