Worst Signal on Record? What the Z-Score Crash Means for BTC’s Price

Bitcoin’s drop triggered a –4.45 Z-score on Binance, signaling severe market distortion driven by billions in forced liquidations.

Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $84,000, wiping out billions of dollars in leveraged positions in only a matter of hours.

The plunge also marked one of the cryptocurrency’s biggest distortions on record over one day, with Binance data showing a –4.45 Z-score spike, which is an extremely rare reading that points to severe market imbalance.

Volatility Spikes as Binance Metrics Show Rare –4.45 Z-Score

Data shared by Arab Chain highlighted a sharp swing in market conditions on Binance, where Bitcoin briefly dipped toward $83,500 following quick rallies and equally fast retracements. The platform’s analyst described the –4.45 Z-score captured within the exchange’s models as abnormal behavior.

“Typically, when this indicator reaches such extreme values, it signals a clear ‘distortion’ in market behavior often linked to liquidity shocks or sudden sell-offs triggered by the liquidation of highly leveraged positions,” they wrote.

Furthermore, according to them, Binance’s 24-hour change rate sat near –3.4%, while the daily standard deviation jumped, signaling an increase in volatility after several days of relative calm around the $89,000 to $91,000 region.

One of the catalysts, as noted by other market technicians at XWIN Research Japan, was a sudden shift in expectations for the Bank of Japan (BOJ). There had been lots of speculation on Monday that Governor Kazuo Ueda could signal a December interest rate hike, triggering a rapid appreciation of the Japanese Yen.

This started a swift unwind of the popular Yen carry trade, where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, typically one of the first assets to react to liquidity shifts, fell quickly as funding rates turned negative and open interest shrank from the low-$30 billion area to about $27 billion.

The Critical Line Holding Back a Deeper Cycle Breakdown

While leveraged washouts dominate the short-term picture, some on-chain analysts are pointing to a longer-term support level that could determine the cycle’s health.

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According to one of them, Crazzyblockk, the behavior of those who bought BTC between 12 and 18 months ago is often a reliable indicator of market strength. Data shows that they currently have a collective cost basis of approximately $70,000, meaning their position will remain profitable as long as BTC holds above that level.

This, Crazzyblockk says, is good for the rest of the market as staying above that group’s cost basis provides structural stability. The expert suggested that the foundational support zone is all that separates a steep correction from becoming a full cycle reversal.

If the asset falls below that level, it could see more severe bearish phases similar to those that happened in 2018 and 2022.

Furthermore, the late-November price drop into the low-$80,000s may have created a durable area of buyer interest. Recent analysis from Glassnode indicated that the move formed one of 2025’s densest cost-basis clusters, potentially establishing a strong accumulation zone near $80,000.