VanEck Says Mid-Cycle Holders Driving Downturn as Whales Stay Steady

Bitcoin’s latest sell-off is being driven by mid-cycle holders rather than long-term whales, according to VanEck’s “Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report.

The asset management firm said wallets whose coins last moved within the past five years account for most of the recent selling, while the oldest cohorts have remained “remarkably steady” despite weakening sentiment. VanEck also noted that coins that were last moved more than five years ago continue aging into the cohort, adding roughly +278,000 BTC over the past two years, which the firm said signals that long-term conviction remains intact.

The report lands as bitcoin trades near multi-month lows. BTC was recently around $86,696 at 9:15 p.m. UTC on Thursday, down 3.2% over the past 24 hours and 31.2% below its Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko. Analysts have tied the broader decline to forced liquidations, long-term holder distribution and heightened volatility across offshore derivatives markets.

“There have been several catalysts, but it seems as if the biggest drivers are long-term selling by ‘OGs’, an uncertain economic climate, and a mass deleveraging event on the 10th October,” Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, told Euronews. He said older, large-balance holders “have been selling for several weeks,” creating “a flood of supply hitting the market.”

Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, told Euronews that bitcoin’s swings also reflect aggressive trading behavior on offshore platforms. She said professional trading firms deploy order-book strategies “labelled spoofing or laddering,” adding that such firms “care only that [the price] moves quickly.”

VanEck said the 3–5 year age band has fallen 32% over the past two years as those coins changed addresses, a trend the firm links to turnover among cycle traders rather than capitulation by decade-long holders.

The report also highlighted a reset in speculative positioning: open interest in bitcoin perpetuals has dropped 20% in BTC terms and 32% in USD terms since Oct. 9, pushing funding rates to levels similar to past washed-out periods. Smaller wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC have increased balances 9% in six months and 23% in a year as the largest whale cohort trimmed positions.

VanEck said the combination of long-term holder stability, cohort rotation and futures-market capitulation leaves bitcoin in a “reset” state that has historically preceded tactical rebounds.