TD Cowen Says Strategy's Bitcoin-Buying Engine Remains Intact Despite Market Volatility

In brief

Strategy’s preferred-share activity jumped, including a sharp pickup in its variable-rate preferred issuances.
The company deployed about $704 million from its new euro-denominated preferred IPO to buy roughly 6,890 BTC, per the research note.
Its model can keep adding Bitcoin per share because preferred-share funding remains accretive even as the premium tightens, Decrypt was told.

Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation model remained intact through last week’s volatility, according to a new TD Cowen report that points to stronger issuance activity despite a steep drop in the treasury company’s implied Bitcoin premium.

The investment bank said Strategy continued to add Bitcoin at a faster clip, supported by demand for both its new euro-denominated preferred shares and its variable-rate preferred shares.

“What surprised us was upside issuance of its variable-rate preferred shares in the face of a fairly violent downdraft in the price of Bitcoin,” analysts at TD Cowen wrote. “Strategy remains an attractive vehicle for those looking to create Bitcoin exposure, we believe.”

The research note, released Monday by TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete, maintained a buy rating and a $535 price target for Strategy’s (MSTR) common stock.

Strategy “represents a new kind of firm” wherein its operation as the “first publicly traded Bitcoin Treasury Company” sees it converge with “market appetite for volatility and return” on an “effectively leveraged basis into Bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.

Preferred shares let Strategy raise capital without issuing common stock right away, while the variable-rate Stretch Prefs pay an adjustable dividend that helps keep them trading near par. Both instruments provide steady, predictable funding that Strategy converts directly into Bitcoin, allowing it to keep buying with limited dilution.

The note also points out that the company raised more capital than expected, deployed it immediately into Bitcoin, and continued to generate BTC-per-share gains even as Bitcoin and the stock moved lower. Strategy deployed some $704 million from its new euro-denominated preferred IPO to buy roughly 6,890 BTC, per TD Cowen’s data.

Strategy’s stock, meanwhile, extended its slide on Monday, finishing at $195.42 after dipping to $189.53 intraday, according to data on Google Finance.

The drop coincides with the “broader risk-off rotation” that has pushed Bitcoin back to levels last seen in April and dragged major tokens and tech equities lower, according to Bitwise analysts who told Decrypt the market is digesting a “recalibration of liquidity expectations.”

The recent issuance trends still reflect the core mechanics of Strategy’s model rather than short-term market moves, observers say.

“Strategy is successfully tapping a separate pool of yield-focused investors who want less volatility than the common stock, a structure that appears sustainable as the company retains “broad discretion” to adjust dividend rates to ensure issuance,” Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Tiger Research, told Decrypt.

Asked whether Strategy’s issuance structure can keep producing BTC-per-share gains if its premium keeps tightening, Yoon affirmed, saying the gains “are driven by acquiring Bitcoin with non-dilutive capital like preferred shares,” and how those are “definitively accretive” over an operation “that is independent of the common stock’s market premium.”