Attention Bitcoin (BTC) Bulls, Trump’s Tariff Dividend Might Skip Direct Stimulus Checks

The cryptocurrency market lit up on Sunday, with social media erupting in cheers as users hoped for new bull runs in bitcoin BTC$106,414.96 and tokens like XRP and DOGE fueled by stimulus checks, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a tariff dividend for low-income Americans on Truth Social.

But the reality, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later clarified, is more complicated.

Bessent explained that the President’s tariff dividend might be delivered through the tax cuts from his major economic policy bill earlier this year.

“The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms, in lots of ways. It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda — no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security – deductibility on auto loans,” Bessent told ABC’s This Week when asked by Trump’s social media post.

These indirect measures, as mentioned by Bessent, may not trigger the same immediate surge in bitcoin, altcoins, or consumer spending as direct stimulus checks typically do. That’s because checks provide quick, tangible cash inflows that can rapidly boost demand, while tax cuts tend to distribute benefits more gradually.

It’s the case of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush — the certainty of direct cash inflow generally carries more immediate market impact than the uncertain promise of indirect measures.

Bessent’s clarification followed euphoric assumption that the announced dividend would come in the form of stimulus checks, drawing parallels to the COVID-era payments that were closely linked to unprecedented rallies in cryptocurrencies – particularly altcoins.

The narrative lifted market valuations. Bitcoin BTC$106,414.96 rallied from roughly $103,000 to $105,000 on Sunday, extending gains to over $106,500 at one point during Monday’s Asian hours.

The leading cryptocurrency has gained 4% in the past 24 hours, with altcoins such as XRP, WLFI, PUMP, UNI, and ZEC rising 8% to 25%, respectively. The CoinDesk 20 Index has gained over 5% to 3,469 points. The rally, however, stalled at around 8:00AM UTC.

It’s also worth noting that drawing parallels with 2021 doesn’t quite hold up. Back then, inflation was well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and interest rates were pinned near zero, both factors encouraging increased risk-taking and market exuberance. Today, rates stand around 4% following recent cuts, and inflation remains at least a full percentage point above the Fed’s target.

This raises a crucial question: whether recipients of the tariff dividend—whether through direct payments or indirect measures like tax cuts—will channel those funds into crypto trading or opt to save them instead.