Fed Cuts Interest Rate Again – Will Crypto Rally Or Stall?

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, marking its second rate cut this year.

The central bank said economic growth remains moderate while job gains have slowed and unemployment has edged up. Inflation, however, remains “somewhat elevated,” keeping the Fed cautious about further policy easing.

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Fed Balances Inflation and Labor Market Risks

The decision also confirmed that the Fed will end quantitative tightening on December 1, effectively pausing its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected.

The statement highlighted growing downside risks to employment, a shift from prior meetings that focused mainly on inflation. 

The Fed said it will assess future policy “based on incoming data” and the “balance of risks” to its dual mandate.

Chair Jerome Powell and most committee members backed the move, while two dissented. Stephen Miran supported a deeper 50 bps cut, citing weaker job data. 

Economic Context

Available indicators show that growth continues at a moderate pace, but key labor measures are softening. The unemployment rate remains low, though the Fed acknowledged it has risen slightly since the summer.

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Inflation has picked up since early 2025, reinforcing concerns that prices could stay above the 2% target longer than expected.

Futures markets now price a 70% chance of another 25 bps cut in December. 

However, Powell is expected to stress a data-driven approach at the press conference.

Outlook for Crypto Markets

The policy shift may bolster risk appetite in the short term. Bitcoin and major altcoins often benefit when liquidity expands and bond yields fall.

Major KOLs such as MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor and Robert Kiosaki earlier predicted Bitcoin price to go beyond $150,000 by the end of 2025. 

However, persistent inflation could limit broader enthusiasm. If inflation expectations rise again, risk assets—including crypto—may face renewed pressure from stronger dollar flows.

Analysts say the balance between easing and inflation will define the next phase of the crypto market. 

Sustained liquidity support could lift Bitcoin above key resistance levels, while a hawkish tone in December may reverse those gains.