Here's What to Expect From Solana as Daily Transactions Fall Ahead of ETF Deadline

In brief

Solana daily transactions fell to 64 million, down nearly 50% from July’s peak.
Capital rotation to rivals and network friction are key reasons for the decline, one expert said.
Despite a likely ETF approval Friday, Solana’s price is expected to follow Bitcoin’s lead.

Solana’s daily transactions are on a steady decline, even as the highly anticipated exchange-traded fund deadline arrives, with one analyst suggesting the token’s price action is likely to seek cues from Bitcoin’s directional bias.

The number of daily transactions on the network has plummeted from a peak of 125 million on July 24, 2025, to roughly 64 million, per CryptoQuant data.

The SEC’s final deadline to rule on spot Solana ETF filings from issuers including VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Franklin is on Friday, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data compiled by Eric Balchunas.

“It suggests a rebalancing away from hype volume.” Shivam Thakral, CEO of Indian crypto exchange BuyUcoin, told Decrypt.

Thakral explained that subsiding retail activity and capital rotation into competitors like BNB Chain are the key drivers behind the drop.

“Underneath both, any friction in validator performance or UX acts like a catalyst for decline, he added. “So, the drop is part normalization, part competitive pressure, and part sentiment shift.”

With the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission greenlighting “generic listing standards” in September, the specific 19b-4 filings and their deadlines have become largely irrelevant, Decrypt previously reported.

ETF analyst Eric Balchunas previously noted that the Solana ETF approval is all but confirmed in a September 30 tweet.

The confidence is reflected in Bitwise’s amended Wednesday filing that notes a low fee of 0.20%.

“Bitwise not playing around,” Balchunas posted in a Thursday tweet, responding to the fee structure change from Bitwise.

“Low fees have a near-perfect record of attracting investors, so it’s a good sign for inflow potential,” he added.

“Solana is unlikely to break out solo,” Thakral noted, commenting on the token’s price action. “It’s far more likely to tag along with Bitcoin’s direction.”

A sustained bullish move would likely require a combination of broad ETF-driven inflows and a Solana-specific catalyst.