XRP Price Rally Could Only Start Beyond $3.09 — Here’s Why

XRP has struggled to keep up with the broader market. While other altcoins have rallied strongly, the XRP price has managed just a 3.1% gain over the same period. Despite holding near $3, it has repeatedly failed to break higher.

The reason comes down to two key factors: a bearish chart pattern that continues to limit upside moves, and steady selling by one key trader group, even as large holders quietly accumulate.

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Whales Buy as Retail Sells — A Stalemate Slowing XRP’s Breakout

On-chain data shows a growing divide between whales and retail investors.

Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP have increased their holdings from 8.95 billion to 9.59 billion XRP since late September — a 7.1% jump, worth about $1.9 billion at the current XRP price. This shows large holders have been steadily buying despite the range-bound price movement, helping prevent any deep price drops.

At the same time, exchange net position change — which tracks whether coins are flowing into or out of exchanges — has moved sharply higher, from 197 million XRP on September 29 to 259 million XRP on October 6, a 31% rise. With whales adding close to $2 billion in XRP to their stash, the increased selling pressure seems to be from the retail exits.

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A rising figure means more XRP is being sent to exchanges, often a sign of selling pressure. This indicates that retail traders are still looking to take profits or exit quickly while whales continue to buy.

This opposing behavior has created a kind of stalemate. Whales are doing enough to support XRP’s price, but retail selling is preventing a clear breakout. For XRP to move higher, retail participation needs to flip from selling to holding or accumulating.

XRP Price Still Trapped in a Bearish Channel

On the daily chart, the XRP price remains inside a descending channel, a bearish pattern where lower highs and lower lows continue to form. The upper trend line, acting as resistance, has capped XRP’s moves since October 2.

A daily close above $3.09 — which sits right above this trend line — would confirm an XRP price breakout from the pattern and mark the end of the ongoing bearish structure.

If that happens, XRP could start catching up with other altcoins, targeting $3.33 and $3.58 next.

However, a dip below $2.94 would strengthen the bearish setup and may pull the price back toward $2.88 before any recovery attempt.

For now, XRP’s next big move hinges on one question: can it finally close above $3.09 and join the wider altcoin rally?