Figure (FIGR) Has 40% Upside: Bernstein

Bernstein initiated coverage of Figure (FIGR) with an outperform rating and a $54 price target, calling it a leader in bringing blockchain to credit markets, the broker said in a Monday report.

The stock was 2% higher in early trade, around $41.10.

Bernstein said Figure is doing for lending what stablecoins did for payments, tokenizing traditional assets to make markets faster and more efficient.

With roughly 75% of the $17 billion tokenized private credit market, Figure is the clear frontrunner, according to analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.

Figure’s blockchain platform shifts lending from a balance-sheet-heavy model to a capital-light marketplace, giving investors direct access to consumer loans, the report noted.

Bernstein estimated that the addressable market for credit tokenization exceeds $2 trillion, providing “tremendous growth headroom” as Figure expands beyond home equity lines into other loan products and even equities.

The broker cited Figure’s experienced management team and wide distribution network, with 170 origination partners and over 15 private credit investors, as key strengths. Figure is already the top independent home equity line of credit (HLOC) lender in the U.S., originating about $5.1 billion in 2024, or roughly 3% of the market.

Bernstein expects revenue to rise from $341 million in 2024 to $754 million by 2027, a 30% annual growth rate, driven by Figure’s Connect marketplace. At about 19x EV/2027 EBITDA and 30x P/E, Figure trades at a premium, but Bernstein said its market dominance, profitability, and exposure to the fast-growing tokenization trend justify the valuation.

Figure went public last month. It priced its IPO at $25 per share, valuing the company at $787.5 million.

Read more: Blockchain-Based Lender Figure Prices IPO at $25 Per Share, Raising Nearly $788M