Record Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expiry Sparks Volatility

The crypto market faces one of its biggest stress tests of the year today as more than $21 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today.

With this marking the largest quarter-end expiry of Q3, traders are bracing for heightened volatility as max pain levels converge with macro uncertainty and shifting liquidity.

Over $21 Billion Options Expire Today: What Traders Should Expect

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According to data from derivatives exchange Deribit, a combined $21.097 billion notional value in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts is set to roll off.

“At 08:00 UTC, over $21 billion in crypto options expire on Deribit; one of the biggest quarter-end expiries…. Q3’s largest expiry meets rate cuts and shifting liquidity. Does the market break higher, or stall here?” Deribit posed.

Bitcoin options represent the lion’s share of today’s expiry, with a $16 billion notional value. The total open interest is 146,224 contracts, with a put-to-call ratio (PCR) of 0.71.

It points to a prevalence of Call (Purchase) options over Put (Sale) contracts, suggesting a bullish market sentiment despite the recent pullback.

The max pain level, where most option holders experience the most financial loss, is $111,000, significantly above the current price of $109,526. This suggests traders may attempt to pin spot prices closer to this level as expiry passes.

Meanwhile, Ethereum accounts for $5.08 billion in notional value, with a massive 1.28 million contracts outstanding.

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Its put-to-call ratio of 0.86 suggests a more cautious outlook than Bitcoin’s, despite the prevalence of Call or purchase options.

However, the maximum pain level is $3,800, which is uncomfortably close to ETH’s current price of $3,963 after its sharp sell-off this week.

Ethereum only recently broke below the psychological $4,000 mark, its lowest drawdown since August 8. This weakness has amplified concerns that today’s expiry could exacerbate downside pressure if key support levels fail.

Analysts Warn of Downside Risks for Ethereum Price

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Options analytics firm Greeks.live highlighted the fragile state of Ethereum after what it described as a substantial crash earlier this week.

The firm noted that the Ethereum price dropping below $4,000 saw the largest altcoin on market cap metrics breach multiple technical indicators, and warned of a notable shift in market sentiment.

“Implied volatility for major terms showed little change, but skew significantly shifted toward puts, with put premiums substantially exceeding call premiums. This indicates a sharp increase in the options market’s expectation of downside risk,” wrote Greeks. live.

The firm also highlighted that market maker positions are now entering gamma amplification territory, a zone where price swings can accelerate due to hedging flows.

Some market makers have reportedly started purchasing puts for protection, reflecting rising fears of a deeper correction.

According to analysts at Greeks.live, Ethereum failing to reclaim above $4,000 could see the options market face a bear market repricing scenario.

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Bitcoin, by contrast, appears to be trading in a more consolidated range, with traders expecting lower volatility than ETH.

It is also worth mentioning that today’s expiring options are significantly higher than the $4.3 billion that went bust last week. The difference comes as today’s expiring options are for the month.

It also comes as broader macro conditions add layers of uncertainty. With central banks signaling rate cuts and liquidity conditions in flux, options traders are attempting to hedge short-term risks while still positioning for a more constructive fourth quarter (Q4).

Despite the current caution, Greeks.live noted that many investors have already begun placing bullish bets for Q4, anticipating renewed momentum into year-end.

As options near expiry at 8:00 UTC on Deribit, traders should expect volatility, which could influence short-term market trends into the weekend. However, conditions often stabilize as traders adjust to the new trading environment.

Notwithstanding, given that it is the largest options expiry of Q3, it may well set the tone for crypto markets heading into the final stretch of 2025.