6–12M Coins Keep Flowing Onto The Market

Bitcoin is under renewed selling pressure as fear begins to creep back into the market. After weeks of high volatility, analysts warn that BTC could drop below the $110K support level in the coming sessions if current dynamics persist. Such a move would mark a critical shift in sentiment, as bullish momentum has clearly weakened in recent days.

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Despite this, more optimistic voices argue that Bitcoin remains resilient at current levels. They believe the market could stabilize and reclaim higher ground once buying demand returns, especially if macro conditions or institutional flows provide fresh momentum.

Top analyst Darkfost shared important insights into the current onchain activity, noting a concerning trend among mid-term holders. He highlighted that while it’s difficult to confirm a single entity, Bitcoin aged between 6–12 months has been consistently flowing onto the market, following a strikingly similar selling pattern.

Long-Term Holders Drive Market Pressure

Darkfost explains that long-term holders (LTHs) currently control an overwhelming share of the Bitcoin supply, estimated at around 80–85%. This concentration of supply underscores the structural strength of Bitcoin’s investor base, yet it also means that any selling activity from this group has an outsized impact on price dynamics. When LTHs move coins onto the market, it often signals either profit-taking or a shift in sentiment, both of which can weigh on short-term momentum.

The Bitcoin Spent Output Bands (SOB) indicator further validates this trend, showing that recent onchain flows align with the activity of these experienced holders. As coins aged between six months and several years enter circulation, the data reflects renewed selling pressure, helping explain the bearish momentum that has driven Bitcoin lower in recent days. This dynamic is consistent with the corrective move BTC has faced since losing the $115K level, as the market absorbs distribution from cohorts that previously held through volatility.

Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands | Source: Darkfost

Despite the near-term challenges, fundamentals continue to support a bullish outlook over the long run. Institutional accumulation, shrinking exchange reserves, and Bitcoin’s increasingly strong correlation with macro liquidity cycles all provide a foundation for higher valuations once selling pressure eases.

The coming weeks will be decisive. If Bitcoin can hold above key liquidity zones and shake off the weight of LTH distribution, it may regain the momentum needed to retest its all-time highs. Conversely, failure to defend critical supports could extend the correction, further testing market confidence. Ultimately, while LTHs are shaping current price action, the broader structural demand for Bitcoin suggests that the long-term trajectory remains intact.

BTC Holding Key Demand Level

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading near $112,567, showing a slight rebound after touching intraday lows around $111,135. The chart highlights that BTC remains under pressure following its rejection from the $117K–$118K region earlier this week. The key resistance level remains the $123,217 zone, which has capped rallies since July, while immediate support lies around the $112K–$110K range.

BTC testing key MAs | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

The 50-day SMA at $114,322 and the 100-day SMA at $113,382 have now flipped into overhead resistance after the recent breakdown, suggesting that short-term momentum is weakening. A failure to reclaim these levels in the coming sessions could open the door for a deeper retracement toward the 200-day SMA near $103,869, which aligns with a long-term support cluster.