BTC Calm Before the Storm? Analyst Eyes Late-2025 Rally

TL;DR

• Bitcoin holds steady near $115,500, with analysts expecting sustainable growth before a 2025 overheated phase.
• Sell-Side Risk Ratio drops below 0.1%, showing low selling pressure and continued accumulation among holders.
• Analysts watch $117K closely as $3B in shorts could be liquidated, fueling a stronger rally.

Market Sentiment and Long-Term Outlook

Bitcoin traded at around $115,500 at press time, unchanged on the day, with a 3% gain over the week. Daily trading volume reached $44.3 billion. Analysts describe the market as steady, though momentum remains muted.

Daan Crypto Trades observed,

“The market has now been 10 months since the last period where it was truly overheated.”

He noted the last overheated phase came after the election, when Bitcoin and altcoins surged immediately. He added that the current market is a “slow grind up” with neutral sentiment and little new retail activity.

Looking ahead, he expects another overheated phase toward the end of 2025, but added,

“If we end up taking a different route and extend the cycle into 2026, I’ll simply be patient for a little longer.”

Funding rate data from Coinglass shows Bitcoin and major altcoins trading in a balanced state over the past year. Funding rates, which reflect the cost of holding long or short futures positions, often signal overheated or fearful trading when extreme.

For most of the year, funding has hovered around neutral or slightly positive levels, with only short bursts of high numbers. This suggests traders aren’t aggressively chasing rallies at the moment. With no prolonged extremes, neither Bitcoin nor altcoins are going through extensive highs or lows, supporting the notion that the market may be consolidating in a healthy manner.

On-Chain Data Points to Accumulation

Ali Martinez reported that Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio has dropped below 0.1%, saying this level “often signals local bottoms, accumulation phases, and low sell pressure.” The metric compares realized profits and losses, and a reading this low shows that few holders are securing gains.

Bitcoin $BTC Sell-Side Risk Ratio just dropped below 0.1%. This level often signals local bottoms, accumulation phases, and low sell pressure. pic.twitter.com/lbP8JOe8Of

— Ali (@ali_charts) September 16, 2025

Past drops below the same threshold in 2023, 2024, and early 2025 matched phases where Bitcoin consolidated before recovering. This pattern suggests current market conditions favor accumulation as selling pressure remains low.

Key Levels and Liquidation Risks

CryptoWZRD described the latest daily close as indecisive but sees room for a bullish impulse toward $120,000 ahead of rate-cut sentiment from the Federal Reserve. They cautioned that “a move below $114,800 would keep Bitcoin weak.” On intraday charts, BTC pushed above $117,000, which could open another trade setup if sustained.

At the same time, Kyle Chassé warned that “$3B in shorts will be liquidated when $BTC hits $117K.” Exchange liquidation data shows a large cluster of short positions just above the current price, suggesting that if Bitcoin moves higher, a wave of forced liquidations could add fuel to the rally.