From Trump Bets to Earnings: Polymarket Storms Back Into US Market

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has launched a new section for predicting the earnings of publicly traded companies. The move marks a significant expansion into the US stock market.

The company partnered with Stocktwits, the largest social platform for US stock investors. The collaboration will allow Polymarket to offer its earnings prediction products to Stocktwits’ vast community of users.

From Politics to Corporate Earnings

The partnership announcement on Monday highlighted the new service’s goal of combining Polymarket’s prediction market with Stocktwits’ trading community.

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Polymarket has historically gained significant traction from political events. The 2024 US presidential election most notably saw approximately $3.7 billion in volume. Ironically, US residents were barred from participating in that specific market. Nevertheless, it still drew about $1.8 billion in bets on President Donald Trump’s re-election.

However, this is the first time Polymarket has formally entered the corporate earnings prediction market. The company anticipates that Stocktwits’ trading community of nearly 10 million users will become the primary audience for the new products. They are also expected to serve as a key promotional force.

Return to the US Market

Polymarket’s entry into the US market is strategic. The company re-entered the US after acquiring the derivatives exchange QCEX and receiving official approval from the CFTC on September 3.

This collaboration with Stocktwits represents the first significant opportunity for Polymarket to regain a foothold in the US, three years after being forced to exit the market.

Polymarket operates real-time betting markets on political, economic, and cultural events. In particular, the platform has recently been activating a variety of future prediction markets. These topics include a potential TikTok sale, an OpenAI social app launch, and a possible US government shutdown.

The company’s valuation was originally $1 billion. However, a recent funding round that values the firm at up to $10 billion is underway. Adding to the buzz, Donald Trump Jr. recently joined as an advisor, and his partner’s firm, 1789 Capital, has invested.

Howard Lindzon, the CEO of Stocktwits, expressed enthusiasm for the new venture, stating that Polymarket has “created a whole new way to understand news and expectations.”