Can PI Price Overcome 106 Million Token Unlock to Break Higher?

Pi Network’s native token, PI, has been in a sideways trend since the beginning of the month, reflecting muted buying and selling pressures in the market.

However, technical indicators are beginning to flash early bullish signals, hinting that PI could be preparing for an upward breakout. Yet, despite these bullish cues, the 106 million PI tokens set to be released over the course of this month threaten to derail the potential rally.

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PI Shows Hidden Strength as Buyers Quietly Accumulate

An assessment of the PI/USD one-day chart shows the token’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) climbing steadily despite its sideways price movements. This creates a bullish divergence that suggests rising inflows into the token.

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The CMF tracks the volume-weighted flow of money into and out of an asset over a set period, measuring whether buying or selling pressure dominates. When the CMF rises while the price remains flat or moves sideways—as seen with PI—this forms a bullish divergence, indicating that buyers are quietly accumulating the token even though the price has not yet responded. 

This trend suggests that PI demand is slowly building, and if the buy-side pressure builds even further, it could set the stage for an upward breakout above the narrow range. 

In addition, PI is trending toward its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), confirming the gradual buildup in bullish pressures. 

The 20-day EMA measures an asset’s average price over the past 20 trading days, giving more weight to recent prices. A decisive move above the 20-day EMA signals a shift in market sentiment from neutral or bearish to bullish, reflecting increasing buying interest and momentum. 

For PI, nearing this level suggests that the token is testing the strength of current market support. A successful breach could pave the way for further upward gains, especially if accompanied by sustained buying pressure.

Pi Network’s PI Faces September Test

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Despite these bullish signals, PI’s upcoming token unlock could keep the asset confined within its current range. 

According to PiScan, over 106 million PI tokens are scheduled for release for the remainder of the month, adding significant selling pressure to an already subdued market. 

If demand fails to absorb this influx, any potential upward breakout could be negated. In such a scenario, PI may continue trading sideways or even break below its range, risking a drop toward its all-time low of $0.32. 

Conversely, if buying pressure strengthens and absorbs the new supply, the token could push higher toward $0.40.