Bitcoin MVRV Just Flashed a Dead Cross

The Bitcoin market is showing signs of fatigue after the cryptocurrency briefly fell near $107K, merely two weeks after hitting an all-time high.

Data suggest that momentum in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator appears to be weakening, at least in the short term.

MVRV Dead Cross

MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the aggregate cost basis of all coins, and serves as a key measure of whether the asset is over- or undervalued. Analysts often smooth this data with moving averages, and the recent dead cross between the 30-day and 365-day averages points to cooling momentum.

CryptoQuant explained that a similar pattern unfolded in late 2021 when Bitcoin climbed from $64.9K to $69K after a 6.3% increase while MVRV slipped as capital inflows dwindled.

Today, the setup looks familiar. Despite a stronger 13.3% rally previously from $109.4K to $124K in August, MVRV is once again falling, which means that the surge may be driven more by sentiment and institutional legitimacy through ETFs than by strong new inflows. The divergence does not automatically signal a cycle top, as ETF adoption has added structural resilience to Bitcoin’s market.

Still, the indicator depicts a crucial risk – overstretched valuations without proportional capital backing. As history has shown, such conditions often lead to periods of consolidation or corrections. While long-term fundamentals remain strong, structural signals like MVRV depict fragility in the short term.

Network Growth and Liquidity Surge Together

Zooming out, Swissblock revealed that Bitcoin’s network growth and liquidity are moving upward in tandem. Since 2023, this pattern has consistently seen powerful BTC rallies. Network growth reflects the expansion of active participants and on-chain engagement, while liquidity hints at capital availability in the market.

With both metrics currently climbing again, the analytics platform said that market participants are re-engaging and the ecosystem is strengthening, which could act as fuel for Bitcoin’s next major leg higher.