ETH’s $5K Goal Still in Play if This Crucial Support Survives

Ethereum continues to consolidate below its all-time high of $4.9K, with the price action respecting the ascending channel structure on higher timeframes. The market is hovering around a critical support confluence, where bulls and bears are competing for short-term control.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, ETH buyers are struggling to reclaim the $4.9K resistance zone, which has rejected the price on multiple attempts. The asset is now compressed within a tight range between the $4.9K ATH and the ascending channel’s midline support around $4.3K, shaping a triangle formation.

If the price breaks lower, Ethereum faces a crucial retest of the $4K level, a psychological pivot and liquidity-heavy zone where buyers previously defended aggressively. A sustained hold at $4K could set the stage for another attempt at the ATH, while a decisive breakdown would expose the deeper $3.6K–$3.8K demand region.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, ETH is consolidating between $4.4K support and $4.9K resistance, forming a tight range after its recent rejection at the ATH. The ascending trendline from mid-August continues to provide near-term support, keeping the short-term structure tilted bullish.

If Ethereum holds this trendline and breaks above the $4.7K minor high, momentum could quickly carry it back into the ATH region around $4.9K–$5K. Conversely, losing the trendline would likely trigger a liquidity sweep toward $4.2K, aligning with the daily support zone. Until a decisive breakout occurs, ETH is expected to remain inside this wedge-like structure, with volatility building at its boundaries.

Onchain Analysis

By Shayan

Most recently, exchanges recorded a cumulative 628K ETH in outflows, with consecutive daily netflows each near or above -100K ETH. This represents one of the largest and most consistent withdrawal patterns in recent months, signalling a meaningful reduction in exchange liquidity.

At the same time, large whale wallets holding between 10K and 100K ETH have steadily expanded their balances to new highs. Mid-sized wallets in the 1K–10K ETH range have remained largely flat, while smaller cohorts have continued to decline. The clear alignment between persistent outflows and growing whale accumulation suggests that institutional-scale demand is actively absorbing circulating supply.

This shift carries important implications for market dynamics. With less ETH available on exchanges, the market becomes less liquid on the sell side, making it harder for significant amounts to be sold without pushing prices lower. Meanwhile, as demand continues to increase while supply tightens, the setup favours upward momentum. This structural imbalance can act as a powerful catalyst, positioning Ethereum for further price appreciation once the current consolidation phase resolves.