8 Reasons Why the Fed Might Not Want to Cut Rates in September

Cryptocurrencies and related stocks extended losses Tuesday as traders braced for the release of the Fed’s release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

Bitcoin dropped 3.2% in the past 24 hours to slip below $114,000, while ether fell 5.3% to under $4,200. XRP tumbled 6.2%, Cardano’s ADA slid 8% and the broader crypto market was down 3.2%. Shares of crypto-related companies, such as bitcoin miners, crypto exchanges and digital asset treasury firms suffered even bigger losses, with MARA, COIN and MSTR closing today’s regular session down 5.72%, 5.82% and 7.43%, respectively.

By contrast, in general, U.S. equities suffered less: the Dow ended flat, the S&P 500 fell 0.59%, and the Nasdaq slid 1.46%. The disparity underscores how digital assets, which rely heavily on cheap liquidity, are more exposed to shifts in rate expectations than traditional stocks.

Investors now face a pivotal calendar. On Aug. 20 at 2 p.m. ET, the Fed will release minutes from the FOMC meeting held July 29–30, offering insight into policymakers’ tariff and inflation debates. From Aug. 21–23, central bankers gather for the Jackson Hole symposium, with Powell’s keynote set for Aug. 22 at 10 a.m. ET. Together, the minutes and Powell’s speech could define market expectations for the September policy meeting.

Tariffs’ Delayed Bite

Many companies have absorbed tariff costs to protect market share, but analysts warn they cannot do so indefinitely. Once passed on to consumers, these costs could drive prices higher and force the Fed to wait before cutting.

Sticky Inflation Data

Despite some cooling, inflation gauges remain elevated. The producer price index, a key wholesale measure, has been hotter than forecast, suggesting persistent pressures that complicate any case for aggressive easing.

Corporate Limits

U.S. executives have signaled they will eventually be forced to shift tariff costs downstream. If that happens, consumer inflation could accelerate in the coming months, making a September cut seem premature.

Mixed Economic Signals

The U.S. economy shows both slowing job growth and resilient consumer demand. This uneven picture could encourage Powell to argue for patience until the Fed has clearer evidence that growth can withstand tariff-driven costs.

Policy Uncertainty

Tariffs intersect with fiscal and trade policies in unpredictable ways. That complexity increases the risk of missteps, making a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole more likely.

Lessons From History

The tariff shocks of 2018–2019 produced delayed but meaningful inflation, prompting Fed caution. Powell may draw on that precedent to justify holding back this time.

Forward-Looking Indicators

The upcoming release of fresh economic data, including Thursday’s release of preliminary August data on manufacturing and services activity, could show tariff-related cost pressures building. Powell could point to these as another reason for prudence.

Internal Divisions

Minutes from the July FOMC meeting may reveal a split inside the Fed. With hawks focused on inflation and doves emphasizing jobs, Powell may stress the need for consensus, which often favors waiting.

For crypto, the stakes are clear. Higher-for-longer rates curb the liquidity that fuels speculative rallies, raising financing costs for miners and weighing on exchange activity. If Powell signals caution, the sell-off in tokens and crypto-linked equities could deepen. A dovish surprise, however, might offer the spark for a rebound.