30D Change Falls To Lowest Level Since July

Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the $110,000 level, but momentum remains fragile as the market shows early signs of exhaustion. After recent volatility, BTC’s inability to extend gains higher has fueled speculation that a deeper correction may be in play. Traders are closely watching whether Bitcoin can hold above this critical threshold or if selling pressure will drag it lower in the coming sessions.

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Despite the cautious outlook, some analysts view the current consolidation as a healthy reset in a broader bullish cycle. They argue that periods of cooling price action often serve as foundations for more sustainable rallies, reducing leverage and strengthening long-term support levels.

Adding to this cautious optimism, top analyst Maartunn shared fresh data showing that retail demand is backing off. According to his findings, the 30-day Retail Demand Change has dropped to -5%, marking its lowest level since July. This trend suggests smaller investors are stepping aside, leaving price direction increasingly in the hands of larger players and institutions.

Retail Capitulation And Macro Risks

The current retreat in retail demand could carry a bullish undertone for Bitcoin. Historically, retail investors often act as a contrarian signal—buying aggressively near cycle tops and capitulating near market bottoms. With the 30-day Retail Demand Change dropping, smaller investors appear to be stepping aside just as Bitcoin consolidates above the $110,000 level. This reduction in retail activity may be a sign that the market is flushing out weaker hands, setting the stage for stronger accumulation by institutions and high-conviction holders.

At the same time, broader macroeconomic risks add complexity to the picture. The looming threat of a US government shutdown is stirring concerns across risk assets, as investors weigh potential impacts on liquidity, market confidence, and the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy. Historically, periods of political gridlock and fiscal uncertainty tend to increase volatility, with Bitcoin often caught in the crosscurrents.

However, uncertainty does not always translate into downside. In some cases, Bitcoin has benefited from macro turbulence as investors seek alternative assets outside of traditional financial systems. If retail investors remain on the sidelines while larger players accumulate, this dynamic could create a launchpad for a new bullish phase once macro conditions stabilize.

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Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Struggling At $112K

Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,141, showing signs of resilience after its recent dip below the $110,000 level. The chart reflects a short-term recovery, but BTC is still facing strong resistance from the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both positioned slightly above the current price zone. These averages have acted as dynamic barriers in recent weeks, capping upward momentum and reinforcing the market’s corrective phase.

The rejection from the $123,217 resistance level, marked earlier in September, highlights the ongoing difficulty for bulls to sustain rallies. Since then, the structure has shifted into a lower-high formation, signaling fading momentum. Despite the bounce, the failure to reclaim and hold above the $114,000–$115,000 zone could expose BTC to further downside risk, with the 200-day moving average near $105,000 serving as the next critical support.

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For now, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains cautious: bulls need a decisive break above $115,000 to regain momentum, while bears may target deeper retracements if the $110,000 floor gives way again. The coming sessions will be crucial in determining whether this rebound is sustainable or just another pause in the correction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView