3 US Economic Signals That Could Decide Bitcoin’s Fate

Bitcoin (BTC) suffered a rejection as it approached the $116,000 threshold. However, not all is lost as three US economic signals in the pipeline could enable or impede the pioneer crypto’s recovery rally this week.

Traders can front-run the following US economic data to position their portfolios strategically.

US Economic Events to Watch This Week

While multiple US economic signals are being sent this week, only three could significantly influence the crypto market.

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Jerome Powell Speech

While several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will speak this week, perhaps Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday will be the most critical for Bitcoin and crypto traders.

Powell’s speech will come barely a week after the Fed opted for a 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut, marking a first in nine months.  

However, while the Fed cut rates, Powell rejected a rate-cutting cycle, dampening crypto sentiment. At the announcement press conference, the Fed chair framed the cut as a preemptive move to counter weak jobs data.

Therefore, crypto investors will parse his Tuesday speech for comments, with dovish or hawkish remarks likely to influence the Bitcoin price.

“Fed Chair Powell will deliver a speech on Tuesday. Expect volatility,” wrote analyst CryptoGoos.

Beyond Powell, crypto investors are also likely to take signals from Stephen Miran, a new Fed governor confirmed only recently.

His short tenure, ending January 2026, adds a Trump-aligned voice to the board as interest rate cuts appear increasingly likely.

“Monday, newly confirmed Fed governor Stephen Miran speaks for the first time. That’s the only Fed talk to listen to. He architected the entire administration’s monetary and fiscal policy,” wrote analyst MartyParty.

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Given his background as a key architect of the administration’s monetary and fiscal policy, markets will watch closely for signals on the Fed’s new direction.

However, while Miran’s appointment raised questions over Fed independence, others see it as restoring the agency’s strength.

Initial Jobless Claims

Another US economic signal this week is the initial jobless claims, which come every Thursday. This macroeconomic data point shows the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance last week.

In the week ending September 13, 231,000 initial jobless claims were recorded. Meanwhile, economists surveyed by MarketWatch anticipate more claims, potentially reaching 235,000.

Researchers observe that the trend has remained upward since July, urging the Fed to pay attention to inflation and the job market.  

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Indeed, labor market data has progressively grown as a critical macro for Bitcoin, amid declining job openings and growing economic uncertainty.

Rising jobless claims could weaken economic outlook, boosting Fed rate cut bets and short-term Bitcoin demand.

PCE Inflation

Also, on the watchlist for Bitcoin and crypto investors is the August PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) inflation. This US economic signal is due Friday and is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.

Economists expect the August PCE inflation to show that price growth is accelerating. They anticipate a 0.3% month-on-month (MoM) increase in the headline PCE.

Experts also foresee a 2.7% year-on-year (YoY) increase in August, faster than July’s increases of 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY.

Meanwhile, the closely watched core PCE price index is expected to paint a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, this US economic signal is expected to have held at 0.3% monthly in August, while accelerating to 3% annually, up from 2.9% in July.

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A hotter PCE print signals sticky inflation, reducing Fed cut odds and pressuring Bitcoin and risk assets.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $114,432, down by almost 1% in the last 24 hours. The pioneer crypto faces immediate resistance at the $116,000 threshold, after failing to break through during the weekend.

While the ascending trendline continues to offer strong downward support, overhead pressure from the bears caps further upside potential. Based on the volume profiles (grey bars), bears are waiting to interact with the Bitcoin price between $116,000 and $118,623.

If bullish momentum pushes the Bitcoin price beyond this resistance overhang, Bitcoin could ascend toward new highs.

Conversely, if seller momentum increases, the Bitcoin price could extend the fall, potentially losing the critical support at $111,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling points to dwindling momentum. However, its position above the 50 mark suggests residing potential for a bounce.

Beyond US economic signals this week, the political bombshell teased for Tuesday could catalyze a Bitcoin recovery.